Sunday, December 13, 2015

On the bright side: The odds may not be forever in Trump's favor.

Hal Mansfield from Green Valley works the numbers in the GV News this morning.

Donald Trump’s political poll numbers have been between 23 and 35 percent among GOP voters.

About 39 percent of voters register as Independents. Nearly 32 percent register as Democrats and rather less than 24 percent as Republicans.

Thirty-five percent of 24 percent is 8.4 percent. So, about 8.4 percent of GOP voters support Trump to some degree.

In a poll of Independent voters, Bernie Sanders is favored by 45 percent. Donald Trump by around 25 percent; 25 percent of 39 percent is 9.75 percent.

So, for all of his hoopla, headline attention getting, bombastic messages of hate, fear, exclusiveness and divisiveness, Trump has netted about 18.15 percent of voters among those registered as Republicans or as Independents.

Presumably, Trump would draw far less from the Democratic base. Hal offers his predictions based on the statistics.

Will Donald Trump be the GOP candidate for president of the United States? Unlikely. One highly respected political analyst puts his chances at 5 percent.

Could Trump be elected president of these United States.

Highly improbable.

Statistically, based on a variety of poll numbers and an array of media analyses, Bernie Sanders has a slightly better chance of being elected president than Trump does!

Will Bernie Sanders be the Democrat’s nominee for president?

Very, very unlikely.

Hillary Clinton will most likely be the Democratic nominee. My far-fetched guess is that Ted Cruz will be the Republican nominee with John Kasich as his running mate.

Well, I don't see Kasich signing onto a ticket with a Trump clone. But regardless of the predictions, Hal's numbers offer comfort to us Trump watchers.

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