Friday, February 12, 2016

CD2 not listed as competitive by DCCC

The DCCC may have handed the race for the congressional seat formerly held by Gabby Giffords and Ron Barber to the Republican incumbent, Martha McSally. This gem was reported by Tim Steller in Friday's Daily Star; it was buried on page A6 at the end of Tim's column. (h/t Len Eaton)

DEMS DOWN ON DISTRICT 1 [typo here - he meant DISTRICT 2]

For years, the 2nd Congressional District, which includes the eastern Tucson metro area and Cochise County, has been considered a toss-up district. The partisan registration is close, and the elections have been very close.

But now the Dems appear to be seeing Rep. Martha McSally, the Tucson Republican, as too strong. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee excluded the district from its new list of competitive races. That means something: The DCCC is less likely to spend money on races it doesn’t see as winnable.

Dr. Matt Heinz and former state Rep. Victoria Steele are running for the Democratic nomination in the district.

Caveats

Note that the DCCC did not issue any communication regarding CD2. Rather, what Steller is noting is the omission of CD2 from the current listing of competitive districts. That is a list of candidates, campaigns, and districts named to the DCCC's "Red to Blue" program.

The DCCC’s Red to Blue program highlights top Democratic campaigns across the country, and offers them financial, communications, grassroots, and strategic support. The program will introduce Democratic supporters to new, competitive candidates in order to help expand the fundraising base for these campaigns.

Both Heinz and Steele trail McSally in fundraising. That's not likely to get any better given the DCCC announcement. Combined with a recent poll showing McSally leading both Heinz and Steele, the picture is bleak (as I noted last week).

However, the DCCC Chair Ben Ray Luján noted that "There will be additional candidates added to Red to Blue in the future." We still have a long time before the primary so CD2 is not completely out of the DCCC picture ... yet.

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