Saturday, February 27, 2016

Will GOP voter turnout win the election?

It might very well depend on who heads the ticket and whether Latinos vote. Here's speculation from Jessica Taylor at NPR.

Trump has been strong across the GOP spectrum — winning evangelical voters, blue-collar workers and older Americans. But he's also a very polarizing figure, with upside down approval ratings nationally.

Ultimately, the calculation changes in a general election, where Republicans must find a way to win with a more diverse electorate.

And even as many in the GOP are beginning to accept that Trump may be on an unstoppable course to winning the nomination, that doesn't mean they aren't nervous about his ability to win over a growing Hispanic voting bloc nationally, especially given his harsh rhetoric on immigration.

In 2012, Latinos made up 10 percent of the vote, and Mitt Romney lost those voters to Obama by a stunning 44 points. Many Republicans worry that gap would grow if Trump or Texas Sen. Ted Cruz were their standard bearer.

"I can't think of a single biggest motivator for Hispanics to vote against Republicans than to have Donald Trump at the top of the ticket," said GOP strategist Brian Walsh, who's unaligned in the primary. "The enthusiasm is on our side, despite shifts demographically. It goes without saying that Trump and Cruz would harm that."

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