Monday, June 27, 2016

Clinton's lead over Trump widens - and other pollsterous data

Depending on which poll you look at, she leads by 12 points or 2 points or an average of 7 points.

From the HuffPollster (Huffington Post)

A TALE OF TWO NATIONAL POLLS - HuffPollster: “Two new polls released on Sunday both show Trump on the decline from one month ago and trailing Hillary Clinton, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, by a significant margin. An ABC/Washington Post poll finds Trump trailing Clinton by a remarkable 12 points. In that poll, 51 percent of voters said they would vote for Clinton while 39 percent said they would vote for Trump. The poll shows an astonishing 14-point swing from one month ago — Trump has fallen by 7 points while Clinton has gained by the same amount. Last month, Trump had a slight edge on Clinton in the ABC/Post poll, with 46 percent to her 44 percent of the vote. An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll also released Sunday finds Trump trailing Clinton by 5 points. Clinton carries 46 percent of support in this poll, while the real estate mogul takes 41 percent. The NBC/WSJ poll shows just a 2-point decline for Trump from one month ago.” [HuffPost]

NBC News has more analysis of the different results.

Our poll wasn't the only survey that was released over the weekend. Also on Sunday, the Washington Post/ABC poll showed Clinton ahead by 12 points, 51%-39%, after Trump was up by two points in May. The biggest difference between the NBC/WSJ and WaPo/ABC polls? Our poll has Democrats with a four-point party ID advantage, while the WaPo/ABC poll has Democrats with a 12-point party ID edge. So when in doubt, average them out -- and in the latest RealClearPolitics average, Clinton leads Trump by nearly seven points in a head-to-head matchup. And remember, seven points was the final margin of the 2008 Obama-McCain contest.

Some of the increased lead over Trump probably has to do with the movement of Sanders' supporters to Clinton.

As Hillary Clinton campaigns Monday morning with Sen. Elizabeth Warren in Cincinnati, the newest NBC/WSJ poll finds that Bernie Sanders supporters are slowly -- but surely -- coming to Clinton's side. In the poll, 45% of Sanders supporters have a positive view of the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, while 33 percent have a negative view of her (+12). That's an improvement from last month, when it was 38 percent positive/41 percent negative among Democratic primary voters backing Sanders (-3), but it's still a far cry from the 60% positive/15% negative score that Clinton supporters have of Sanders (+45) in this new poll. What's more, in the poll's horserace result showing Clinton leading Donald Trump by five points, 78% of Sanders supporters are picking Clinton, while 10% back Trump and the rest are neither/other/unsure. But in a four-way ballot -- where Clinton's lead is reduced to one point -- 63% of Sanders supporters are behind Clinton, 14% pick the Green Party's Jill Stein, 9% back Trump, and 8% are for Libertarian Johnson. Bottom line: Clinton is a stronger position with Sanders supporters than she was a month ago, but she still has a ways to go. And that helps explain Warren's appearance with Clinton as Sanders continues to hold off of an official endorsement.

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