Friday, June 24, 2016

Surprising poll result: Clinton leads Trump in AZ

Here are results from the poll reported by the Phoenix Business Journal (h/t AZBlueMeanie).

A new statewide poll gives Hillary Clinton a surprising lead over Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential race in Arizona.

Clinton gets 46.5 percent versus 42.2 percent for Trump in 1,060-voter poll conducted by Phoenix-based OH Predictive Insights.

Another 5.8 percent said they would vote for a third-party candidate and another 5.6 percent are undecided.

Pollster Mike Noble said Clinton has a 12-point lead over Trump with women.

Trump leads Clinton by six points in the rural part of state while Clinton leads by 17 points in Tucson.

“However, when it came to Maricopa County, both candidates were virtually tied,” Noble said.

The bulk of Arizona’s population is in Maricopa County.

“It’s shocking to think that a Democratic presidential candidate would carry Arizona if the election were held today, considering that every statewide office in Arizona is held by a Republican as well as significant majorities in the Arizona House and Senate,” said Wes Gullett, a partner of OH Predictive Insight, GOP political consultant and longtime confidant to U.S. Sen. John McCain.

“Arizona should be a reliable red state,” Gullett said.

Just as Donald Trump should be a reliable Republican candidate.

Note. The Clinton-Trump difference is outside the margin of error (which is in the range 3% - 4%). But bear in mind that the difference could shift depending on what happens with the 3rd party and undecided votes.

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