Sunday, July 31, 2016

New national poll reports 10-point convention bounce for Clinton

Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com tweets: "First fully post-DNC poll I've seen shows a 10-point bounce for Clinton: rabaresearch.com" and "Entirely possible that Clinton got a big bounce, but we need more than one poll to confirm it. Lots of polls coming Sun/Mon/Tue I'd imagine."

The poll was conducted by RABAresearch.com. Snippets from their report follow.

Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton has opened a significant lead over Republican nominee Donald Trump, now leading him by 15 points, according to a new online nationwide survey conducted on Friday, July 29th by RABA Research, a bipartisan polling firm.

Among likely voters, Clinton garners 46% support to Trump’s 31%. Libertarian Gary Johnson now captures 7% of the vote, while Jill Stein sits at 2%.

A RABA Research poll conducted the day after the Republican convention showed a tighter race, with Clinton at 39% and Trump at 34%. Johnson was at 8% in that survey, while Stein found 3% support.

“After closing the gap to single digits last week, Trump’s post-convention bounce has disappeared,” said RABA Research’s John Del Cecato, a Democratic partner with the firm. “While Trump continues to struggle to consolidate support within his own party, Clinton has a sizable lead among independents, and is even peeling off a small slice of Republican voters.”

The online poll was paid for by RABA Research and not by any candidate, committee or outside group. The survey measured 956 voters and was conducted Friday, July 29, 2016. The results were weighted to ensure proportional response and the margin of error for the results is +/- 3.2%.

View the full poll here.


How is the margin of error calculated? 1.96/(2*sqrt(N)) where N is the sample size, in this case, 956. Then convert the decimal fraction to percent.

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