Wednesday, August 24, 2016

Some interesting predictions about technological impacts happening now

This introduction is from Robert Goldman's Facebook page via Rye Bread's email.

In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt. What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 years - and most people won't see it coming. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on film again?

Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became way superior and got mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs. Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential Age.

Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.

Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world.

Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.

Goldman covers lots of ground and his Facebook post is a good read. Consider using 3D printing to build a computer on wheels - the new truly "auto" mobile. Cheap self-driving cars, lots of them, means no longer a need for all the cars we now have on the roads. Why have your own car? You can call one up on your smart phone. We're almost there.

Somewhere along the line this was added to Goldman's original post. Looks like it might have come from khanacademy.org.

Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child learns at school in First World countries. We have already released our software in Indonesia and will release it in Arabic, Suaheli and Chinese this Summer, because I see an enormous potential. We will give the English app for free, so that children in Africa can become fluent in English within half a year.

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