Thursday, October 13, 2016

HuffPollster update: Effects of the 2005 Access Hollywood tape and more

Here are goodies from the HuffPollster (via email).

CURRENT HUFFINGTON POST FORECAST - Hillary Clinton has an 90.7 percent chance of winning the presidential election. Republicans have a 67 percent chance of keeping the Senate. [Presidential forecast, Senate forecast]

We've got to work on the 67% chance for Republican control of the Senate!

THE LATEST TRUMP SCANDAL MIGHT STICK - Amy Walter: “Over the last year we’ve witnessed a familiar pattern: Trump does or says something controversial/contentious/reprehensible (think: attacks on Judge Curiel and the Khan family), his poll numbers plummet… Then, like clockwork, the race stabilizes…. But, with less than a month out from the election, with voters actually voting and with Trump seemingly more focused on an all-base, all the time strategy, is the pattern going to be broken?... How it’s different: … There have been two polls released since the audio tapes became public. Both of them show Trump taking a pretty serious hit, especially with the kind of swing voters he needs to keep the race competitive: namely independents, women and college educated voters…. People are already voting…. A dip in enthusiasm for Trump and an increase in support and enthusiasm for Clinton now translates to actual votes…. How it’s the same: Hillary isn’t any more popular today than she was in September…. Strategists for both parties say it’s too soon to know if Trump’s troubles are leaching down to the congressional level…. However, both sides believe Trump is becoming more of a liability to GOP down ticket candidates than he was earlier this fall.” [Cook Political Report]

Scriber is a numbers guy and thinks this before/after poll is informative about the negative effects of the groping tape on voter support for Trump. That cost him with all demographic groups surveyed (including men and evangelicals).

A before/after test in Wisconsin shows Trump plummeting - Philip Bump: “When the Marquette University Law School polled Wisconsinites at the end of September, Hillary Clinton maintained a narrow lead over Donald Trump in the state…. The school went back into the field on Thursday to get a new sense of the electorate. As it turned out, this was an interesting moment to do so. On Friday afternoon, The Washington Post broke the story about Trump’s 2005 comments on ‘Access Hollywood,’ in which he is heard describing how being ‘a star’ allowed him to grope women. The pollsters noticed an immediate effect…. On Thursday, likely voters backed Trump by a one-percentage-point margin. This is well within the margin of error; since each day’s calls is only a part of the overall sample, the margins of error are necessarily larger. On Friday, the day the tape came out late in the afternoon, Clinton led by six points. On Saturday and Sunday, she led by 19. That’s a 20-point shift over the course of the survey, and why Clinton now leads Trump by seven points in a four-way contest. That drop-off post-tape held across demographic groups. (All of these shifts are in a four-way race.)” [WashPost]

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