Tuesday, October 18, 2016

Pols and Polls: The good, the bad, and the ugly

Scriber is starting a new series to run frequently (daily?) until the election. My sources for the most recent polling numbers are the HuffPollster and Nate Silver's 538, both of which I get through email subscriptions. I'll keep watch for others also.

Summary for Monday, Oct 17. Clinton continues to lead with over 90% chance of winning, but the Senate is still 60% (or so) likely to stay with Republicans. Latinos are getting more interested and a polling well for Clinton. The mood among voters is ugly. 81% of them/us cannot agree on basic facts because we believe ours and don't believe theirs - and that is true of both us and them. Equally ugly is the low level of trust in our electoral system.

FORECAST UPDATE - Hillary Clinton has an 92.7 percent chance of winning the presidential election. Republicans have a 62 percent chance of keeping the Senate. [Presidential forecast, Senate forecast]

CLINTON LEADS BY 50 POINTS AMONG LATINO VOTERS - Carrie Dann: “Hillary Clinton is maintaining a 50-point lead over Donald Trump among Latino voters heading into the final weeks of the presidential election, and more Latinos now say they they’re very interested in the November contest, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Telemundo poll. The poll found that 67 percent of Latino likely voters back Clinton in a four-way matchup, while just 17 percent back Trump. Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein each garner three percent support…. the new data also show that interest in the election among Latinos has increased. That’s a boon for the Democratic candidate as she works to build a winning coalition in an election cycle that pits two historically unpopular candidates against each other. What’s more, the increase in interest in the election among Latinos has come largely from groups most likely to support Clinton, including younger voters, Democratic-leaning Latinos and those who speak primarily Spanish.” [NBC]

AMERICANS CAN’T AGREE ON BASIC FACTS - HuffPollster: “If there’s one thing Hillary Clinton’s and Donald Trump’s supporters have in common, it’s this: Each side thinks the other is not only wrong, but completely divorced from reality. Eighty-one percent of registered voters say that most Trump and Clinton supporters ‘not only disagree over plans and policies, but also cannot agree on basic facts, according to a new Pew Research survey. Just 18 percent think they ‘can agree on basic facts, even if they often disagree over plans.’ ‘Ironically, this is a rare point of agreement among the supporters of Clinton and Trump,’ the survey report notes. ‘Comparably large shares of registered voters who back Clinton (80%) and Trump (81%) say the two sides are unable to agree on basic facts.’ Although this is the first time Pew has asked that question, there’s reason to suspect the inability to agree even on objective reality is heightened in this election compared with past cycles.” [HuffPost]

They’re losing faith in democracy, too - Nathaniel Persily and Jon Cohen: “Large numbers of Americans across party lines have lost faith in their democracy, and many will not accept the legitimacy of this election. Those were the stark findings from a survey we performed from Oct. 6 through Oct. 8 of more than 3,000 registered voters, fully 40 percent of whom say: ‘I have lost faith in American democracy.’ Six percent indicate they’ve never had faith in the system. Overall, barely more than half — just 52 percent — say, ‘I have faith in American democracy.’... More than 6 in 10 voters backing Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton express faith in U.S. democracy, compared with just over 4 in 10 of those backing her Republican rival…. When asked in this SurveyMonkey Election Tracking poll if they would accept the result should their candidate lose in November, just 31 percent say they definitely would see the outcome as legitimate. Nearly as many (28 percent) say it is either “unlikely” that they would accept the result or that they definitely would not.” [WashPost]

Finally! The Republicans have succeeded at something: destroying public trust in a hallmark of our democratic system.


Summary for Tuesday, Oct 18. Clinton's chances continue to edge upward, and Republican chances of holding Senate edge downward. Undecided voters are leaning towards Clinton on the important questions of qualifications and temperament.

FORECAST UPDATE - Hillary Clinton has an 93 percent chance of winning the presidential election. Republicans have a 59 percent chance of keeping the Senate. [Presidential forecast, Senate forecast]

TRUMP DOESN’T HAVE MUCH ROOM TO IMPROVE AMONG UNDECIDEDS - James Hohmann: “With the help of our in-house pollster Scott Clement, I studied the 14 percent of registered voters who support neither Clinton nor Trump in the four-way poll test…. Among this sub-group, 71 percent are ‘strongly unfavorable’ to Trump versus 46 percent who say the same of Clinton…. [T]here is a big chasm on two questions that tend to be better predictors of vote choice: 77 percent say Trump is not qualified to be president, compared to 44 percent who say Clinton is not. And 86 percent say Trump lacks the temperament to be president, compared to 42 percent who say the same of Clinton. This 14 percent is crucial because nearly everyone else can no longer be persuaded: 88 percent of Trump supporters and 89 percent of Clinton backers said they will ‘definitely’ support their current preference. More than 1.4 million ballots have already been cast, and a superior Democratic ground game is locking in her advantage.” [WashPost]

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