Thursday, October 20, 2016

Pols and Polls: The good, the bad, and the ugly

Summary for Thursday, Oct 20. The good for Clinton: the forecast keeps edging upward for Clinton, 95.4% chance of a win vs. 4.4 chance of a Trump win. The bad for Trump: he lost last night's debate in two ways. He did not score a knockout which he desperately needed, and reactions were negative about his pussy footing (sorry!) around the issue of conceding the election. The ugly: even though most voters agree on the value of concession, a sizable segment of the American voters, especially those supporting 3rd-party candidates, believe the opposite. Scriber's comment: Those who vote for Johnson or Stein are not only throwing their vote away, they are implicitly joining an anti-democratic movement.

TRUMP IS REALLY UNLIKELY TO WIN - The HuffPost forecast gives Trump only a 4.4 percent chance of becoming president to Clinton’s 95.4 percent chance of winning. (The missing 0.2 percent is the likelihood of a tie in the Electoral College.) States in which Clinton has over a 90 percent chance of winning add up to 302 electoral votes. National polls also illustrate Clinton’s substantial advantage. According to the HuffPost Pollster aggregate, Clinton leads by 7.2 points in a head-to-head match with Trump and by 6.7 points when third party candidates are included. Only one national poll ― IBD/TIPP ― has shown Trump leading by even a single point in the four-way race, and it appears to be an outlier. In the head-to-head matchup, it finds Clinton leading by 3 points. Every other national poll from the last two weeks shows Clinton leading, often by more than 5 points.

And the final debate didn’t help his chances - HuffPollster: “Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton went three for three in the presidential debates, according to preliminary polls gauging viewers’ reactions to her final matchup Wednesday against Republican Donald Trump. YouGov’s scientific online snap poll showed Clinton winning by 10 points, 49 percent to 39 percent, among registered voters who watched the debate. Another 10 percent called the debate a tie….A CNN/ORC snap poll, which recontacted people who said in a past poll that they planned to watch the debate, gave Clinton a 13-point win, 52 percent to 39 percent…. As we’ve noted before, debate-night polls come with some heavy caveats.... But with Clinton up by more than 8 points in national polls, a debate that fails to move the needle is an unqualified win for her campaign. Trump would have needed to score a major coup to count the final debate as victory ― and the early results suggest that he didn’t even come close to doing so.” [HuffPost]

MOST VOTERS AGREE IT’S IMPORTANT FOR ELECTION LOSERS TO CONCEDE - From a Pew Research Center report: “When the election is concluded, most voters say it is either very important (53%) or somewhat important (24%) for the losing candidate to acknowledge the winner as ‘the legitimate president of the country.’ Only about one in five (22%) say a public concession by the losing candidate is ‘not too’ or ‘not at all important.’ Clinton supporters (60%) are more likely than Trump supporters (51%) to view a concession as very important. Only about one in five of each candidate’s supporters (21% of Trump backers, 16% of Clinton backers) say this is not important. By contrast, roughly twice as many Johnson and Stein supporters (41%) think it is not too or not at all important that the losing candidate publicly acknowledge the winner as the legitimate president.” [Pew]

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