Sunday, October 23, 2016

Pols and Polls: The good, the bad, and the ugly

Clinton up by 12 points in today's ABC News poll

Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton has a double-digit lead in the inaugural ABC News 2016 tracking poll released Sunday morning.

Likely voters give Clinton the edge over Republican rival Donald Trump by a 50 to 38 percent margin. Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson has 5 percent and the Green Party's Jill Stein has 2 percent.
Clinton is at her highest level of support in any ABC News/Washington Post poll while Trump is at his lowest, ABC News noted.

Pollsters found that 69 percent of likely voters disapprove of Trump’s response to accusations about his treatment of women.

More than half, 59 percent, also reject the GOP nominee’s claim that the election is rigged against him and 65 percent disapprove of his comments that he may not accept its results

US Senate view at TalkingPointsMemo

It's time to think about down-ballot races, so, as Josh Marshall (TalkingPointsMemo) put it, Let's Talk about the Senate.

The TPM Senate Scoreboard currently stands at 49(D)-48(R) with three states in the toss-up category: North Carolina, Missouri and Nevada.

But I'm starting to get the sense that Democrats may significantly over-perform what has been a close fought, essentially tied race for control of the Senate. Here's why.

A number of states remain quite close. Pat Toomey (R) is just 2.4 percentage points ahead in Pennsylvania. Maggie Hassan (D) is just 3.7 points ahead in New Hampshire. So even outside the window that we consider a "toss-up" - a lead of 2 points or less for either candidate - you have a number of races that are still quite close. Indeed, one of the few bright spots for the GOP this cycle is that most Republicans would have feared much worse for the Senate if they knew six months ago just how badly the Trump campaign was doing.

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