Wednesday, October 26, 2016

Pols and Polls: The good, the bad, and the ugly

Summary for Oct 26. As I follow the money, Clinton out-raising and out-spending Trump, I see more signs of Trump as L O S E R. HuffPollster gives Clinton a 97% chance of winning and the Democrats a 66% chance of getting at least 50/50 in the Senate. Americans are split about their outlook on the country's direction since the 1950s. "Seventy-two percent of likely Trump voters think things have changed for the worse, while about 70 percent of Clinton voters think things have changed for the better." Many voters remain pessimistic about the worth of their vote. That's ugly.

FiveThirtyEight Newsletter: 0: Number of fundraisers for Trump Victory — a joint committee of the Republican Party and Donald Trump’s campaign — scheduled between now and Election Day. The committee’s last formal fundraiser was the day of the final debate. On the Democrats’ side, Hillary Clinton had her last fundraiser Tuesday in Miami, with 41 more events featuring surrogates to come. [The Washington Post]

FiveThirtyEight Newsletter: $22 million: That’s how much the Clinton campaign and its allies are spending in battleground states this week, compared to $9.8 million from the Trump camp and its allies. Ah, now those fundraising numbers from earlier make sense. In Florida alone this week, Clinton and her allies are spending $7.4 million to Camp Trump’s $3.6 million. [NBC News]

HuffPost forecast update - Hillary Clinton has a 97 percent chance of winning the presidency. Donald Trump’s chances are under 3 percent. In the Senate, Republicans have a 33 percent chance of getting 51 or more seats, Democrats have a 32 percent chance of winning the outright majority and there’s a 35 percent chance of a 50-50 split. In the event of a tie, the vice president would be the tie-breaker, so after accounting for the chances of each ticket winning the presidency Democrats have a 66 percent chance of holding at least a weak majority in the chamber. [Presidential forecast, Senate forecast]

MANY AMERICANS ARE NOSTALGIC FOR DECADES PAST - HuffPollster: “Americans are close to evenly split on whether the U.S. has gotten better or worse in the past 60 years, according to a new survey from the nonprofit organization PRRI. Fifty-one percent say that American culture and way of life have worsened since the 1950s, while 48 percent say they have changed for the better. Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton supporters are on opposite ends of the spectrum. Seventy-two percent of likely Trump voters think things have changed for the worse, while about 70 person of Clinton voters think things have changed for the better. ‘This election has become a referendum on competing visions of America’s future,’ Robert P. Jones, PRRI’s CEO, said in a statement. ‘Donald Trump supporters are nostalgic for the 1950s, an era when white Christians in particular had more political and cultural power in the country, while Hillary Clinton supporters are leaning into ― and even celebrating ― the big cultural transformations the country has experienced over the last few decades.’” [HuffPost]

MANY VOTERS WORRY THEIR BALLOTS WON’T COUNT - Giovanni Russonello: “Fewer than half of Americans are very confident that their vote for president will be counted correctly — and most say their ballot will not matter anyway because the political process is so dominated by corporate interests. These are among the results of a P.R.R.I. poll released on Tuesday showing a nation that is deeply ambivalent about the electoral process. Americans are almost evenly divided on whether fraud or voter repression is a bigger problem, despite many studies showing that fraud is almost nonexistent nationwide…. political independents were the most skeptical, with just over a third expressing a great deal of confidence. Independents were also among the most likely to say that the influence of wealthy interests overpowered voting. Fully 57 percent of all Americans, and nearly two-thirds of independents, agreed that ‘politics and elections are controlled by people with money and by big corporations,’ so it does not matter if they vote. At 66 percent, young people are among the most likely to feel pessimistic about the worth of their vote.” [NYT]

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