Friday, October 28, 2016

Pols and Polls: The good, the bad, and the ugly

Summary for Oct 28. Clinton's chances keep edging upward (Huff Post says 98%) and the Republicans' chances of keeping the Senate are declining (Huff Post says 26%). 70% of registered Latino voters are voting for Clinton.

Forecast update - HuffPost’s models give Hillary Clinton a 98 percent chance of winning, and Republicans just a 26 percent chance of holding onto the Senate. [Presidential forecast, Senate forecast]

POLLS DIFFER ON CLINTON’S MARGIN, BUT AGREE THAT SHE’S AHEAD - Mark Murray: “In the last 24 hours, one national poll showed Hillary Clinton with a 14-point lead. Another had her ahead by just three points. And another found it right in the middle ― Clinton up nine points….How to make sense of the plethora of polls? Well, here’s an answer: Clinton is clearly ahead, though the margin is larger in some polls than others. And when looking at the battleground states, she still has the easiest path to the 270 electoral votes. Looking at the national polls, the Huffington Post shows Clinton with an average lead of seven points in the surveys it recognizes, while the RealClearPolitics average has it at five points. To put those numbers into perspective, President Obama won the national vote by seven percentage points in 2008 and by four points in 2012. What’s more, on this same day in the 2012 cycle, Obama held just a 0.6-point lead over Mitt Romney in the Huffington Post poll tracker.” [NBC]

So Clinton is way ahead of where Obama was on this day in 2012. And she is still running her ground game at full court press.

LATINO VOTERS SUPPORT CLINTON BUT FEEL DISENGAGED FROM PROCESS - Nick Bayer: “Seventy percent of registered Latino voters are voting for Clinton this year, while only 17 percent support Trump, according to a new poll from the National Council of La Raza and Latino Decisions. Among Latino registered voters surveyed, 68 percent view Clinton favorably, while only 18 percent have a favorable opinion of Trump. The poll also shows clear Latino support for greater economic equality and wider health care coverage. To provide one figure, 55 percent of Latino voters think we should keep and improve the Affordable Care Act, 16 percent think it’s okay as is, and only 25 percent believe it should be repealed. But despite a lot of attention paid to Latino voters, Eric Rodriguez, Vice President of NCLR, noted with discontent, ‘we haven’t seen a lot of engagement around the issues. No one is really talking to our community and asking [about] what Latino voters are thinking.’ For example, the poll finds over half of respondents don’t think public officials take into account the health needs of the Latino/Hispanic community when considering health insurance reforms. President of the Children’s Partnership Mayra Alvarez’s big takeaway: ‘We have work to do to engage the Latino community in identifying solutions for the future.’” [NCLR]

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