Monday, October 10, 2016

Update on polls - Clinton leads in key states

From the HuffPollster (via email):

POLLS SHOW TRUMP DECLINING BEFORE LATEST SCANDAL - HuffPollster: “New polls out Sunday morning show Donald Trump was the electoral underdog even before the news broke about a 2005 tape in which the GOP nominee made lewd comments about assaulting women…. The worst news for Trump comes out of Ohio. The Buckeye State had been tilting toward the Republican throughout September, but his lead has evaporated in the last two weeks. A new CBS/YouGov poll shows Clinton leading by 4 points, 46 percent to Trump’s 42 percent…. Florida has been leaning toward Clinton on average for most of 2016, but a few occasional polls have shown Trump leading. The new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll continues a trend of Clinton leading Trump by a few points ― she’s up 45-42…. [Sunday] morning’s CBS/YouGov poll puts Clinton up by 5 points in Wisconsin, 43 percent to Trump’s 38…. Two polls in Pennsylvania show Clinton winning by sizable margins. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll has the Democratic nominee up by 12 points…. A CBS/YouGov poll finds an 8-point lead for Clinton, 48 to 40.” [HuffPost]

Now we await the polls post-2005-tape and post-second-debate. But, as the Pollster notes, it will be difficult to sort out the effects of the scandal vs. the effects of Trump's debate performance.

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