Tuesday, November 8, 2016

Pols and Polls - the good, the bad, and the ugly

Summary for Nov. 8: The best news is that the momentum shifted to Clinton during the last few days covered by the polls, notably Nate Silver’s 538 model which now give Clinton a 71.6% chance of winning (up from 65%). The other models give her an 84% chance (NY Times Upshot) and a 98.2% chance (HuffPollster). The models have Clinton’s electoral count in the range of 302 - 323 and her advantage in the popular vote in the range of 3.5 - 4.0 percentage points. The models also forecast the likelihood of a Senate flip as 50.5% (538), 52% (Upshot), and 66% (Huff).

See more results below the fold.

Snippets from HuffPollster via email: “It’s Finally Election Day, And Things Look Good For Democrats.”

POLL-BASED PROJECTIONS GIVE CLINTON THE WIN - HuffPollster: “The HuffPost presidential forecast model gives Democrat Hillary Clinton a 98.2 percent chance of winning the presidency. Republican Donald Trump has essentially no path to an Electoral College victory. Clinton’s win will be substantial, but not overwhelming. The model projects that she’ll garner 323 electoral votes to Trump’s 215. (Rothenberg and Gonzales agree.) For all of 2016’s craziness, that projection actually follows a fairly traditional electoral map…. Florida, Nevada and North Carolina have leaned toward Clinton in the polling averages. The forecast in recent weeks, along with the strength of early voting numbers, makes it seem very likely that these will stay with her…. [Ohio is] the closest [state], according to the HuffPost forecast model. Trump leads by just 1 point, and the polling trend has moved toward the GOP in the last few weeks. The HuffPost model gives Trump about a 70 percent chance of winning the state. *In the event that Clinton’s ground game stimulates turnout and pulls Ohio in her direction ― which is not out of the question ― she’ll get 341 electoral votes.*” [HuffPost]

The Senate is likely to go blue as well - More from HuffPollster: “The Senate is likely to shift to a Democratic majority, with 51 seats, or 50 seats and Tim Kaine as the vice presidential tie-breaker. The HuffPost model says there’s a 66 percent chance Democrats will get 51 or more seats, and a 25 percent chance the chamber ends up with each party at 50 seats…. The key Senate races likely to switch to Democratic from Republican are in Illinois, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Indiana. The HuffPost Senate forecast model gives those races fairly high probabilities of switching to Democratic hands. If all five states shift, Democrats will have 51 seats. If our model has Indiana incorrect, Democrats will have 50 seats and will require Kaine’s vote to break ties.” [HuffPost]

Snippets from the 538 newsletters:

First things first: Hillary Clinton has a 70 percent chance of winning the election [now 71.6%], according to both the FiveThirtyEight polls-only and polls-plus models. That’s up from a 65 percent chance on Sunday night, so Clinton has had a good run in the polls in the final days of the campaign. Clinton’s projected margin of victory in the popular vote has increased to 3.5 percent from 2.9 percent.

Mostly, though, the number I have on my mind today is “4.” That’s because it kept coming up over and over as national polls were released today [Nov. 7]: It seemed like every pollster had Clinton leading by 4 percentage points. …

All 435 U.S. House of Representatives seats are up for election today, and the Democrats would need a 30-seat swing to gain the majority. That is very unlikely. The Cook Political Report considers 37 seats competitive, seven of which are in Democratic hands and 30 of which are GOP seats. Given the uncertainty in the polls this cycle, Cook estimates a swing of five to 20 seats to Democrats. [FiveThirtyEight]

36 percent: Percentage of Hispanic voters who have cast early ballots in Florida who did not vote in 2012. [The New York Times]

Daily Kos reports higher turnout in Texas. “… early voting is up 31% over 2012. This, combined with record registration of 15 million statewide, would appear to be good news for Democrats.”

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