Sunday, November 6, 2016

Trump's 6 stages of doom

Daily Kos contributor “Niz” thinks “Donald Trump’s Six Stages of Doom” are “For Real This Time.”

You might remember an article written by Nate Silver, called Donald Trump’s 6 Stages of Doom. It was written way back in the primaries, and he gave Trump only a two percent chance of winning the GOP nomination.

Silver was off base in his analysis back then.

But today, I have for you a real, genuine 6 stages of doom for Trump—based on the actual situation he finds himself in just a few days before the election.

And this prediction of doom is based on real data, not just wishful thinking or punditry …

I’m going to just give you a brief outline of Niz’s 6 stages; you will have to read the original to fill in the data that support his arguments.

STAGE ONE: DEATH BY LATINO

Apparently the Latinos who have heard his rhetoric for these many months, are taking his words to heart.

Two states that the Trump campaign believes they are competitive in are Nevada and Florida. But look at the early voting numbers for Hispanics in these two states, as given to us by very reputable experts, Jon Ralston and Steve Schale.

[Ralston on Nevada:] The Dems now have a firewall – approaching 73,000 ballots – greater than 2012 when Barack Obama won the state by nearly 7 points.

[Schale on Florida:] … through Wednesday, 170,000 more Hispanics had voted early (or VBM) in 2016 than voted early or by VBM in the entire 2012 cycle. And keep in mind, because Hispanic is a self-identifying marker, studies have found that the real Hispanic vote is larger than the registration.

STAGE TWO: DEATH BY WOMEN

… most of us are familiar with Trump’s “groping tape,” the allegations of sexual assault, his continuous stream of insults and innuendo towards women reporters, women celebrities, and just females in general.

So is it any surprise that we’re seeing these kinds of early reports from those on the ground?

States with greater increase of women voting early than men from 2012: AZ, FL, GA, LA, NC (i.e., every one where there is available data)

STAGE THREE: DEATH BY POVERTY

I love that every stage of doom is a little bit of delicious Trumpian irony, and this stage is no different.

Given that Donald hypes himself as an ultra-rich businessman, it’s kind of sad (actually it’s not) that one of his undoings will be his lack of funds.

[From Money Magazine:] Filings from the Federal Election Commission show the democratic nominee is headed into the final days of the campaign with $62.4 million in her campaign account — nearly 4 times the $16 million remaining in the Trump campaign.

STAGE FOUR: DEATH BY GROUND GAME

From the beginning of his campaign, Trump eschewed the typical conventions of political gamesmanship. He decided to forego the experienced staff and political operators, instead using novices and a skeleton crew that defied common sense.

[From FiveThirtyEight:] Clinton has more than twice as many field offices as Trump nationwide (489 vs. 207), and her organization dominates Trump’s in every battleground state. Clinton’s offices outnumber Trump’s by 20 in New Hampshire, 22 in Iowa, 20 in Colorado, and 27 in North Carolina. In the states where Trump has opened the most offices, such as Pennsylvania (42), Florida (29) and Ohio (22), Clinton’s advantage remans large: She bests him by 15 offices in Pennsylvania, 39 in Florida and 47 in Ohio.

Research shows that field offices can earn campaigns about a 1 percentage point increase in vote share per county. That effect may sound small, but it was enough to change the outcomes in North Carolina — and possibly Florida and Indiana as well — in 2008. If Trump is behind on Nov. 8, he won’t be able to rely on his ground game to make up the difference.

Scriber: Clinton also has more ground game resources in Arizona.

STAGE FIVE: DEATH BY ISOLATION

In the end, it turns out that feuding and fighting with nearly every politician in the republican establishment might have been a bad idea.

Right now, Hillary Clinton is doing a full-court press to turn out the vote in multiple states across the country. She can’t be everywhere at once, so she relies on powerful surrogates to do much of the work for her.

Her bench is deep, consisting of heavy-hitters like Bernie Sanders, Michelle Obama, President Obama, Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Tim Kaine and more.

These people have the ability to draw large crowds to rallies and then push those folks to vote and to register.

Because of Trump’s unpopularity and his feuds with Paul Ryan (among others), The Donald has been forced to be a one-man army, holding rally after rally in his key states, going it mostly alone in the waning days of the campaign.

STAGE SIX: DEATH BY MAP

And finally, it comes down to the raw pain of sheer mathematical improbability.

Trump always had a steep path to climb to get the win—the electoral college happens to favor democrats, as the blue state strongholds give the party a natural advantage heading into each cycle, and the demographics of the country have gotten “bluer” each year.

Right now, every single reputable prediction model and polling model is predicting a Hillary Clinton Win because of Trump’s fatal map problem.

In Conclusion

This has been a deeply disturbing election season. For myself and many others, it has brought about anxiety and unease unlike anything we’ve witnessed in elections past.

The stakes feel (and are) very high indeed.

But there’s good reason to feel confident that, if the sane people of this country mobilize, continue their efforts, and work hard over the course of the next few days, Donald Trump has very little chance of ever taking real power in our country.

I believe the preponderance of the evidence states that Donald Trump is doomed. Doomed to be the loser and choke artist that he accused Mitt Romney of being. Doomed to go down in history as one of the nastiest, least truthful, bigoted and reprehensible candidates to ever get close to the Presidential office.

This election is not over.

People still need to finish Trump off by voting and staying focused until he’s finally lost the credibility he so desperately wants and needs.

However, that’s exactly what I think is going to happen come November 8th.

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