Wednesday, April 19, 2017

Ossoff with 48.1% misses GA 6 win, heads for runoff in June

From FiveThirtyEight’s Significant Digits morning email:
48 percent
With 48 percent of the vote in Tuesday’s special election in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District, Democrat Jon Ossoff came in shy of the 50 percent threshold needed to stave off a runoff. He will face Republican Karen Handel in Round 2 on June 20. [FiveThirtyEight]

Ossoff got 48.1% of the votes reports the NY Times in Jon Ossoff, a Democrat, Narrowly Misses Outright Win in Georgia House Race.

FiveThirtyEight offers 5 Takeaways From The Georgia 6 Special Election. The biggest one, thinks your Scriber, is this.

5 The runoff looks close right now

Polls conducted before Tuesday suggested that Handel and Ossoff were running in a near tie in a potential runoff. In an average of five polls conducted since mid-March, Ossoff held a scant 0.4-point lead over Handel. A formula created by my colleague Nate Silver based off previous runoff elections3 also points to a tight runoff. Combining the lean of Georgia 6 on the presidential level over the last two elections (9.5 percentage points more Republican than the nation), Ossoff’s margin over Handel (28 points) and the aggregate margin of the Republican candidates over the Democratic candidates (2 points), Handel is favored in the runoff by less than a point. With the relatively wide margin of error on this calculation, this is the equivalent of a tossup.

In other words, get ready for another two months of exciting Georgia 6 coverage! Tuesday was just the beginning.

Here is a list of the other takeaways should you want to explore them.

  1. The polls were good
  2. The early vote was not predictive
  3. The result is consistent with a pro-Democratic national environment
  4. What this means for the 2018 midterm is less clear

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