Saturday, October 21, 2017

What the devll won’t tell you - about the CD2 race

Here’s the latest installment of Blake Morlock’s What the Devil won’t tell you column at Tucson Sentinel.
D.C. smart guys aside, McSally still a favorite if she faces Kirkpatrick … if. He says “Cook Political Report too quick on the draw calling CD 2 race a toss up.”

Morlock is not too keen on McSally. He’s not too keen on Kirkpatrick either. Here are just a few snippets. Hint: go read the whole thing.

I’ll let you in on a secret. However important we think money is in politics, you are underestimating it. Democratic donors don’t really care how their candidates would cast their votes. A candidate’s position on the issues or passion for service are both for chumps and true believers.

The party moneybags and throngs of consultants ask candidates two things: How are you going to raise money? Can you win?

They stop paying attention after the first answer. Win or lose, the consultants get their cut — but only if the cash flows. And the big donors don’t want to put themselves out by being the only one to back a candidate. That’s more embarrassing than losing a good fight.

Candidates must raise money to pay for Beltway-approved consultants, thereby confirming their chops so they can raise the money to get the right message out, narrow the polling gap for the purposes of raising more money to pull into the lead and raise more money to defend that lead. If they can’t raise the first round of cash, then the rest of it doesn’t really matter, does it?

Kirkpatrick clearly will be able to pony up the entry fee for a race while Trump is unwittingly doing all he can to make sure McSally gets an ulcer.

Kirkpatrick’s entry coincides with Cook’s increased odds for a Democratic pickup, the unwritten message being clear enough: Kirkpatrick is inevitable. She secured an early endorsement from EMILY’s List, which seeks out pro-choice women. Former U.S. Reps. Gabrielle Giffords and Ron Barber have also saddled up with Team Kirkpatrick.

How will voters take this whole moving down from Flagstaff thing? I moved down from Flagstaff in 1998. I just didn’t immediately run for Congress.

Yeah, yeah, Kirkpatrick has family here. Sure, fine, she’s got grandkids in town and their mom could use some extra help. OK, it’s Tucson and we’re all from somewhere else. I hear you, Team Kirkpatrick: she went to the University of Arizona during Nixon’s first term. But dudes, she lost a Senate bid in November, moved down to Tucson in the spring and announced a congressional bid in the summer. It seems just a bit Glassmanesque or “pulling a Rodney” or whatever you call someone a bit too eager to get elected to something.

I’m going to make a prediction right here: The Democrats running who have lived in the district will get the cold shoulder from national D’s, which is par for the freaking course. I cannot overstate how little the Harvard-Georgetown crowd thinks of those of us who lack the intellectual acuity to live in Washington, D.C., or New York. Bumpinville – basically all of America where theatergoers can’t catch “Hamilton” – will take the Democrats we’re given.

“You got Kirkpatrick and don’t give us any lip.”

As for the rest of the CD2 Democratic contenders?

The yocal Democratic field will undoubtedly not go quietly into the good night. I mean, former state Rep. Matt Heinz is in the mix and this guy just keeps coming, loss after loss.

Heinz, former state legislator Bruce Wheeler, former Assistant Army Secretary Mary Matiella and hotel manager Billy Kovacs will no doubt gang up on her as soon as they get their hands on some cash to get out the message and voters start paying attention.

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