Tuesday, April 24, 2018

Today's CD8 election is a bit of a cliff hanger

Ronald Hansen tells us Everything you need to know about Tuesday’s Arizona special election for Congress in the The Republic.

Today, April 24th, voters in CD8 head to the polls to see who will fill the US House seat vacated by Trent Franks.

On Tuesday, voting ends in the special election to replace Franks, the veteran House Republican who resigned in December amid a sexual-misconduct scandal. Republican Debbie Lesko is the favorite to replace him because of her party’s 17-percentage-point registration advantage in the district.

But at a time when independents, and even some Republicans, nationally are increasingly wary of the GOP, Democrat Hiral Tipirneni has mounted a serious challenge to Lesko.

How close is the race? Recent polls show anything from Lesko winning by 10 percentage points to Tipirneni by 1.

The election offers Democrats a long-shot possibility of narrowing GOP control of the House.

But a Lesko win by small numbers, say, less than 10 percentage points, is sure to be an ominous sign about Republican prospects in the fall elections. Right now, Democrats need to win 23 seats to retake the chamber.

If Tipirneni attracted 20 percent of Republicans and won independents by just 10 percentage points, she could lose 10 percent of her party’s voters and still be within 5 percentage points of Lesko.

How the party loyalists and independents come down will determine whether the race ends as an underwhelming Republican performance or a Democratic shocker that would reshape Congress even before November’s elections.

So. Stay glued to the tube tonight.

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