Wednesday, May 16, 2018

Heinz leads Kirkpatrick in CD2 race

Larry Bodine, writing in the Blog for Arizona this morning, reports that a New Poll Shows Matt Heinz in the Lead Over Ann Kirkpatrick in Tucson’s CD2 Congressional Race.

A survey of likely Democratic primary voters in Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District shows Dr. Matt Heinz holding a 4-point lead over former Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick in the race for the Democratic Party nomination.

In an initial Democratic primary ballot test, Matt Heinz currently leads the field with 27%, giving him a four-point edge over Ann Kirkpatrick (23%) …

[Heinz’s lead] is within the survey’s margin of error of +/–4.9%.

However:

Heinz doubles his initial lead over Kirkpatrick after voters hear positive profile statements about both candidates. After learning more positive information about the candidates’ backgrounds, including their professional experience, Heinz increases his vote by 13 points and moves to an eight-point advantage (40%–32%) over Kirkpatrick.

The poll also reflected CD2 voters’ concerns over Kirkpatrick’s votes while in Congress.

… Survey respondents were read a series of descriptive phrases, and were asked if they would be more or less likely to vote for a candidate who matched such a description. Votes for Congressional Republicans’ legislation to cut Medicare and the support for Bush-era tax cuts elicited severe negative reactions – more than eight in ten Democratic primary voters would be less likely to vote for a candidate – like Kirkpatrick – who took those positions.

… These results show the highly competitive nature of the Democratic primary, and despite her high-profile and well-financed statewide candidacy for the U.S. Senate in 2016, 2nd District Democrats have not embraced Kirkpatrick. The contest is very much a two-person race, as the other candidates generate only mid-single-digit support.

Those “other candidates” include Mary Matiella, Billy Kovacs, and Bruce Wheeler.

Undecided voters number 36% before and 14% after hearing positive statements about Heinz and Kirkpatrick.

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