Thursday, October 11, 2018

Bad news and good news for AZ Democratic candidates

Some bad news

The Arizona Capitol Times reports a new poll in which Ducey leads Garcia by wide margin. But there is a caveat to consider.

Gov. Doug Ducey is dominating challenger David Garcia, according to a poll by Arizona Capitol Times and OH Predictive Insights.

Ducey has a 17-point lead over Garcia in the latest poll of likely Arizona voters. The poll comes as early voting begins on Wednesday.

Approximately 54 percent of the 600 likely voters surveyed chose the Republican incumbent, while 37 percent sided with the Democratic challenger.

In the poll, Ducey is beating Garcia among both men and women of all age ranges, and among likely voters across all regions.

Polling has showed Ducey increasing his lead in recent weeks, likely a result of the governor and his allies blanketing the airwaves with pro-Ducey and anti-Garcia ads leading up to the election. Meanwhile, Garcia’s campaign, having spent most of its campaign cash ahead of the primary, hasn’t had the resources to fight back.

The caveat: As I said before, these polls are based on samples of “likely voters”. If unlikely voters turn out in large numbers, then Garcia can close the divide.

Better news in CD2: 538 in its Election Update sees Six Districts The GOP Appears To Have Abandoned — And Maybe Two More It Should.

One of those two is AZ CD2!!!

As of 9:20 a.m. Eastern time, Republicans have a 4 in 5 chance (80 percent) of holding the Senate, according to our Classic forecast. The situation is much more dire for the GOP in the House, where Democrats have a 7 in 9 chance (78 percent) of taking control. They are so dire in some GOP-held districts, in fact, that national Republicans have begun pulling their resources or never invested them in the first place — effectively ceding those seats to Democrats, presumably so that the GOP can bolster more winnable districts.

Why take such a drastic step? Usually, it’s because party elders believe the seat is already lost. But parties don’t always show the best judgment about these things, so we thought we would compare the seats that Republicans have given up on with the seats most likely to flip to Democrats in our model. And what we found was that Republicans are indeed picking their battles wisely, at least based on what we know right now.

Daily Kos Elections is tracking House districts that either party appears to have conceded. According to its data, there are six Republican-held districts that both the National Republican Congressional Committee and the Congressional Leadership Fund have opted out of: the California 49th, Iowa 1st, New Jersey 2nd, Pennsylvania 5th, Pennsylvania 6th and Pennsylvania 17th. …

538 goes on to list its own predictions for “eight Republican-held districts that our model says are most likely to fall to Democrats, as of 9:20 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday”, Oct 10th.

Our model generally agrees with top Republicans’ assessments: All six of the districts that Daily Kos has tracked make our list …

You may have noticed that two of the eight districts in our table aren’t on the Daily Kos list. That’s because Republicans apparently haven’t backed away from them yet — but maybe they should. The Arizona 2nd (which typically plays host to some of the closest congressional races in the country) and the Pennsylvania 7th (another redrawn seat) are strong Democratic bets by our calculations — even stronger than the California 49th and Pennsylvania 17th.

538 gives Kirkpatrick a 95.3% chance of winning.

Larry Bodine (Blog for Arizona) covers The Kirkpatrick v. Marquez-Peterson CD2 Congressional Debate at a Glance with an excellent table contrasting the positions of the candidates. Carolyn Classen responds with a link to the Video of this debate online at AZPM. These two items make it clear why 538 said “maybe they should” in evaluating the Republicans withdrawing from districts that are likely losers for GOP apparently now including AZ CD2.

No comments:

Post a Comment