Monday, October 8, 2018

New AZ poll has Gov and SoS races trending Republican

I unhappily report on an item from this morning’s Arizona Capitol Times:

YELLOW SHEET REPORT
Poll: Garcia’s Bernie Sanders revolution is imploding
Ducey is blowing Garcia out of the water in the latest Data Orbital poll of the governor’s race. The poll of 550 likely voters shows Ducey with a 16-point lead over his Democratic opponent, 51–35.

It gets worse: Data Orbital has Steve Gaynor leading Katie Hobbs in the Secretary of State race by 7.3%.

Both polling results are reported in NEW SURVEY: Ducey and Gaynor Lead in Democratic Surge Scenario.

Assuming the polling is correct, there are not enough undecided voters to reverse the Ducey advantage. Data Orbital’s target population was “Likely, general election voters in Arizona.” For the Dems to win this, it appears, unlikely voters need to turn out and vote Democratic.

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