Friday, October 12, 2018

Scriber endorses Sinema for Senate and Kirkpatrick for House

The ballots for the 2018 election are in the mail, so we are down to the wire. I know that in the primary season many of you (and that includes me) preferred candidates who did not prevail. But we are beyond that now.

I am endorsing Kyrsten Sinema for U. S. Senate and Ann Kirkpatrick for AZ CD2 House.

The alliance4action has published 2018 fact sheets that include tables comparing and contrasting candidates and their positions on issues. The evidence in that publication supports my decision. In addition, following are excerpts from (and updates to) my previous posts that inform my endorsements.

Kirkpatrick

Larry Bodine (Blog for Arizona) covers The Kirkpatrick v. Marquez-Peterson CD2 Congressional Debate at a Glance with an excellent table contrasting the positions of the candidates. Carolyn Classen responds with a link to the Video of this debate online at AZPM. These two items make it clear why 538 said “maybe they should” in evaluating the Republicans withdrawing from districts that are likely losers for GOP apparently now including AZ CD2.

538 gives Kirkpatrick a 95% chance of taking back the CD2 seat.

UPDATE: As I was writing this post this morning, I found this report by Joe Ferguson in the Daily Star, NRCC pulls funding for Marquez Peterson in CD2.

The National Republican Congressional Committee is pulling the plug on a planned six-figure ad buy in Congressional District 2 weeks before the general election.

The move has some wondering whether one of largest national groups singularly dedicated to electing Republicans to the House of Representatives has lost faith in its candidate, Tucson Hispanic Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Lea Marquez Peterson.

A spokesperson for the NRCC confirmed that the group would stop spending money on ads next week, but declined to discuss the reasons why it would shift an estimated $400,000 to races in other districts or states.

To update what I said earlier, “Republicans withdrawing from districts that are likely losers for GOP apparently now including AZ CD2.”

Sinema

[I identified] votes on legislation that matter to progressives, for example, denying funding for Planned Parenthood, punishing sanctuary cities, increasing the availability of guns, repeal of Dodd-Frank, and repeal of regulations that provide for clean air and water. I pulled the records for 33 such bills from January 1, 2017 to present. I counted the number of instances in which Sinema voted against legislation supported by Trump. Her score was 85% opposed to Trump’s position.

You might ask how good is that score. To establish bounds on that measure I used the same method to compute the progressive scores for Raul Grijalva (AZ CD 3) and Martha McSally (AZ CD2). Grijalva scored a perfect 100% opposed to Trump’s positions and McSally, voting almost entirely with Trump on everything, scored 3%. (By the way, Trump’s score on the same measure was a perfect 0%.)

… When it comes to deciding on how to vote, if you want ideological purity, you could point to the difference between Sinema and Grijalva (100% - 85% = 15%) and stay home. But if you want to flip that seat held by Republican Jeff Flake to a Democrat, you should focus on the difference between Sinema’s progressive score vs. that of McSally (85% - 3% = 82%) and Get Out to Vote.

UPDATE: Joe Ferguson adds:

Attempts to get Rep. Martha McSally to debate her Democratic rival Kyrsten Sinema in her hometown have failed.

While Sinema first floated the idea for a debate hosted by AZPM several weeks ago, the proposal eventually fell apart as the two sides couldn’t agree.

Instead McSally and Sinema will take part in a debate in Phoenix on Monday, Oct. 15, hosted by Arizona PBS, in partnership with The Arizona Republic and azcentral.com.

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