Monday, November 12, 2018

2018 election update for Nov. 12

My reporting started with 0630, Saturday, Nov 10. Here are new results as of 5:30 AM, Sunday Nov 12.

Numbers flagged with “+” favor Democrats. Numbers flagged with “-” favor Republicans.

I’m carrying forward previous results so you can track trends. For example, yesterday Sinema was beating McSally by 29,832 votes. This morning the lead increased to 32,169 votes.

Observations
The trends seen yesterday continue to favor Dems. Of note: Katie Hobbs has closed on Gaynor in the SoS race and now is only 424 votes behind. Some of the races (CD2 and LD2) are showing no change; it’s not clear if that reflects delays in reporting on the SoS site or stabilization of the vote counts. Stay tuned.

The good news
US Senate, Sinema vs. McSally: +20,102 +29,832 +32,169
US House, Kirkpatrick vs. Marquez-Peterson, +19,584 +22,563 +22,563
AZ SoS, Hobbs still trails Gaynor, –10,696 –2,008 –424
AZ Corp Com, Sandra Kennedy vs. Glassman, +1,602 +8,517 +9,747
AZ Corp Com, Sandra Kennedy vs. vs. Olson n/a +4,642 +5,575
AZ Sup/Public Instruction, Hoffman +31,809 +43,563 + 46,721
AZ LD2 Senate, Dalessandro +9,494 +10,349 +10,349
AZ LD2 House, Gabaldon beats Ackerley +6,930 +7,532 +7,532
AZ LD2 Hernandez beats Sizer +7,114 +7,813 +7,813

Some of the not-so-good news
CD8, voucher queen Lesko leads Tipirneni, –29,455 –30,219 –37,518
LD28 Senate, Kate Brophy McGee leads but not by much –616 –617 –643
LD11, Holly Lyon is still way behind, trailing each of the R candidates by about 10K.

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