Friday, November 16, 2018

2018 election update for Nov. 16

Updated voting numbers

My reporting started with 0630, Saturday, Nov 10. Here are new results as of 5:30 AM, Friday, Nov 16.

Numbers flagged with “+” favor Democrats. Numbers flagged with “-” favor Republicans.

I’m carrying forward previous results so you can track trends. For example, yesterday Sinema was beating McSally by 39,505 votes. his morning it stands at 46,783.

Observations
The numbers I report here may be close to the final results. Or maybe not. As of last night (this morning), Sinema widened her lead yet more to 46,783 votes – the largest difference of that race.

Of note: As of last night (this morning), Katie Hobbs kept her lead for SoS with a 13,171 vote advantage; her previous high was 5,916! I was ready yesterday to call this one but the analysis of remaining ballots suggested caution. Caution, schmaution. It sure looks like Hobbs got it.

Also of note: In the AZ LD28 Senate race Kate Brophy McGee now leads her Democratic challenger, Christine Porter Marsh, by only 380. Given enough time and enough ballots, Marsh might take this one. Marsh is Arizona’s 2016 Teacher of the year.

From Steve Farley at 930pm 11/15 (Thursday) Update: (h/t Myra Christeck)

Total remaining ballots to be counted in the state are 85,000 in Maricopa, 7,000 in Pima, and 265 in Yuma. The only remaining race that can change is LD28 Senate, so all eyes will be there in the coming days.

Meanwhile, it looks like Democrat Katie Hobbs is going to be our Next Secretary of State – she now has a 13,171-vote lead with 92K ballots left to count, all from counties that have favored her. Congrats, Katie! I am so happy for you and Kyrsten and Kathy and Sandra and us all!

The good news
US Senate, Sinema vs. McSally: +20,102 +29,832 +32,169 + 38,197 +38,075 +39,505 +46,783
US House, Kirkpatrick vs. Marquez-Peterson, +19,584 +22,563 +22,563 +24,768 +24,718 +24,718 +27072
AZ SoS, Hobbs vs. Gaynor, –10,696 –2,008 –424 +5,667 +4,957 +5,916 +13,171
AZ Corp Com, Sandra Kennedy vs. Glassman, +1,602 +8,517 +9,747 +14,782 +14,461 +15,360 +21,023
AZ Corp Com, Sandra Kennedy vs. vs. Olson n/a +4,642 +5,575 +10,473 +10,126 +10,960 +16,642
AZ Sup/Public Instruction, Hoffman +31,809 +43,563 + 46,721 +54,057 +53,780 +55,102 +62,638
AZ LD2 Senate, Dalessandro +9,494 +10,349 +10,349 +10,913 +10,913 +10,913 +11,843
AZ LD2 House, Gabaldon beats Ackerley +6,930 +7,532 +7,532 +7,879 +7,879 +7,879 +8,488
AZ LD2 Hernandez beats Sizer +7,114 +7,813 +7,813 +8,255 +8,255 +8,255 +8,985

Some of the not-so-good news
CD8, voucher queen Lesko leads Tipirneni, –29,455 –30,219 –37,518 –30,887 –31,374 +31,806 –32,279
LD28 Senate, Kate Brophy McGee leads but not by much –616 –617 –643 –549 –536 +472 +380
LD11, Holly Lyon is still way behind, trailing each of the R candidates by about 10K.

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