Saturday, November 17, 2018

2018 election update for Nov. 17 - Hobbs wins SoS race

Updated voting numbers

My reporting started with 0630, Saturday, Nov 10. Here are new results as of 7:00 AM, Saturday, Nov 17.

Numbers flagged with “+” favor Democrats. Numbers flagged with “-” favor Republicans.

I’m carrying forward previous results so you can track trends. For example, yesterday Sinema was beating McSally by 46,783 votes. his morning it stands at 49,318

Observations

Of note: As of last night (this morning), Katie Hobbs kept her lead for SoS with a 15,025 vote advantage; her previous high - yesterday - was 13,171! Hobbs is the winner. Gov. Ducey called this one. More on that below.

Also of note: In the AZ LD28 Senate race Kate Brophy McGee now leads her Democratic challenger, Christine Porter Marsh, by only 284. Given enough time and enough ballots, Marsh might take this one. Marsh is Arizona’s 2016 Teacher of the year.

The good news
US Senate, Sinema vs. McSally: +20,102 +29,832 +32,169 + 38,197 +38,075 +39,505 +46,783 +46,783
US House, Kirkpatrick vs. Marquez-Peterson, +19,584 +22,563 +22,563 +24,768 +24,718 +24,718 +27072 +27,072
AZ SoS, Hobbs vs. Gaynor, –10,696 –2,008 –424 +5,667 +4,957 +5,916 +13,171 +15,025
AZ Corp Com, Sandra Kennedy vs. Glassman, +1,602 +8,517 +9,747 +14,782 +14,461 +15,360 +21,023 +22,970
AZ Corp Com, Sandra Kennedy vs. vs. Olson n/a +4,642 +5,575 +10,473 +10,126 +10,960 +16,642 +18,458
AZ Sup/Public Instruction, Hoffman +31,809 +43,563 + 46,721 +54,057 +53,780 +55,102 +62,638 +65,171
AZ LD2 numbers are not changing so I’m calling it.
AZ LD2 Senate, Dalessandro over Kais.
AZ LD2 House, Gabaldon and Hernandez beat Ackerley and Sizer.

Some of the not-so-good news
CD8, voucher queen Lesko leads Tipirneni, –29,455 –30,219 –37,518 –30,887 –31,374 +31,806 –32,279 –32,540
LD28 Senate, Kate Brophy McGee leads but not by much –616 –617 –643 –549 –536 +472 +380 +284
LD11, Holly Lyon is still way behind, trailing each of the R candidates by about 10K.

Post-election blues

Ducey calls the secretary of state race for Democrat Katie Hobbs.

Steve Gaynor hasn’t formally conceded in the secretary of state’s race, but Gov. Doug Ducey said Friday he has congratulated Democrat Katie Hobbs for winning.

Ducey said he concluded there is no way Gaynor, a fellow Republican, can overtake Hobbs in the vote count.

“I said, ‘Congratulations, a race well run, and I’m looking forward to working with you, I think we can work well together,’” Ducey said.

His decision to effectively call the race for Hobbs came even before the latest vote tally was released Friday night.

It showed her increasing her lead over Gaynor since Thursday by close to 2,000 votes. She now leads the race by more than 15,000 votes out of nearly 2.3 million ballots already counted.

There are about 67,000 ballots left to be counted.

That includes 60,000 from Maricopa County, where Hobbs is slightly outpolling Gaynor. The balance are from Pima County, which has provided three votes for Hobbs for every two for Gaynor.

Of course, Arizona GOP launches ‘audit’ of election practices by Maricopa County recorder. There is nothing independent about this, and it’s only an “audit” to those who are smoking something weird.

Alleging voting “irregularities,” the state Republican Party is launching its own “independent audit” of practices by Maricopa County Recorder Adrian Fontes — aided by a law firm that represents the party.

In a news release Friday, party Chairman Jonathan Lines said the investigation will focus on “allegations of fraud in the election.”

Lines provided no examples, however. In fact, he said the plan is to have attorney Stephen Richer, chosen by the party as the auditor, set up a website for people to submit information.

The GOP inquiry also will go into the decision by Fontes, a Democrat, to open “emergency voting centers” on the Saturday and Monday before the Nov. 6 election. Lines has questioned the legality of such centers, even though they have been operated before by Republican recorders and are used in multiple counties.

You gotta wonder how many lines this Lines guy has been sniffing. Even Ducey wants no part of this.

Ducey sought to distance himself Friday from Lines’ allegations and audit. “The election’s over, the people have spoken,” he said.

As to the election process, he said it can be good to examine it regularly. “I always want, and I’ve said many times before, that we can improve, we can reform,” the governor said. “We want it to be easy to vote and we want it to be hard to cheat.”

But Ducey threw cold water on the idea of having that driven by a party-led probe.

“Those are issues that can be handled in a legislative session or after the calendar turns,” he said.

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