Tuesday, November 13, 2018

2018 election update Nov. 13 - Sinema wins, Hobbs now ahead

My reporting started with 0630, Saturday, Nov 10. Here are new results as of 6:30 AM, Tuesday Nov 13.

Numbers flagged with “+” favor Democrats. Numbers flagged with “-” favor Republicans.

I’m carrying forward previous results so you can track trends. For example, yesterday Sinema was beating McSally by 32,169 votes. This morning the lead increased to 38,197 votes.

Observations
The trends seen yesterday continue to favor Dems. Of note: Katie Hobbs was closing on Gaynor in the SoS race and yesterday was only 424 votes behind. As of last night (this morning), Hobbs pulled ahead with a 5,667 vote lead! The SoS numbers are still too close to call. Ballots will continue to be counted through tomorrow, Nov 14, 5:00 PM. If current trends hold, Hobbs will be the second winner of a state-wide race, Hoffman being the other. That, Scriber thinks, is amazing. David Fitzsimmons’ cartoon in the print edition of the Star has AZ trending purple.

The good news
US Senate, Sinema vs. McSally: +20,102 +29,832 +32,169 + 38,197
US House, Kirkpatrick vs. Marquez-Peterson, +19,584 +22,563 +22,563 +24,768
AZ SoS, Hobbs vs. Gaynor, –10,696 –2,008 –424 +5,667
AZ Corp Com, Sandra Kennedy vs. Glassman, +1,602 +8,517 +9,747 +14,782
AZ Corp Com, Sandra Kennedy vs. vs. Olson n/a +4,642 +5,575 +10,473
AZ Sup/Public Instruction, Hoffman +31,809 +43,563 + 46,721 +54,057
AZ LD2 Senate, Dalessandro +9,494 +10,349 +10,349 +10,913
AZ LD2 House, Gabaldon beats Ackerley +6,930 +7,532 +7,532 +7,879
AZ LD2 Hernandez beats Sizer +7,114 +7,813 +7,813 +8,255

Note: Gabaldon and Hernandez have about the same number of votes. The pairing with Republican opponents was arbitrary; the difference in what I report above results from Ackerley getting more votes than Sizer.

Some of the not-so-good news
CD8, voucher queen Lesko leads Tipirneni, –29,455 –30,219 –37,518 –30,887
LD28 Senate, Kate Brophy McGee leads but not by much –616 –617 –643 –549
LD11, Holly Lyon is still way behind, trailing each of the R candidates by about 10K.

Sinema declared winner

The U. S. Senate race was called last night. For example, the NY TImes reported that Kyrsten Sinema Declared Winner in Arizona Senate Race.

Ms. Sinema, 42, won the race by about 1.7 percentage points amid increasing partisan tension. (Her lead could grow even larger as remaining votes are counted.) Some prominent Republicans, including Mr. Trump, claimed without offering proof that voting officials were engaged in fraudulent strategies to bolster Ms. Sinema, as the authorities struggled to count ballots following a surge in turnout.

Michele Reagan, a Republican and the Arizona Secretary of State, dismissed those claims. She said it took time to count the hundreds of thousands of early ballots that were dropped off on Election Day at polling stations, after which county officials had to verify the signature on each ballot.

“These processes take a little bit of time,” Ms. Reagan said in a statement, emphasizing that the methods used by the authorities are “to ensure that voters can trust the outcome of their elections.”

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