Tuesday, July 19, 2016

Making book on the election

According to the NY Times Upshot model, Hillary Clinton has about a 76% chance of winning the presidency (vs. 24% for Trump). These probabilities drift over time and with events so checking back in now and then will be informative. The Times modeling also is applied at the state level; if the election were held today, according to the model, Clinton would get 347 electoral votes (270 needed).

That prediction squares with betting odds (which I explained back in May.) I'll use the odds from PaddyPower. Clinton: 2/5, 71%. Trump: 2/1, 33%. For reference purposes - Sanders: 66/1, 1.5%. Johnson: 200/1, 0.005%. Stein: 500/1, 0.002%.

You might also be interested in the odds for the Democratic VP pick, also from Paddy. Kaine is the top pick, 4/7 or 64% vs. Warren at 9/2 or 18%.

I don't think any of the betting sites would have picked Pence.

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