Friday, August 19, 2016

If all the angry uneducated white men vote ...

... it still would not be enough to get Trump elected.

Greg Sargent (Washington Post/Plum Line) tells us that There may not be enough blue collar white men in America to elect Trump. Literally. Here are snippets.

For some time now, it’s been a running joke among political junkies that there might not be enough blue collar white men in America to elect Donald Trump president. The basic idea has been to mock Trump’s apparent calculation that he can sail into the White House simply by unleashing the power of backlash among this constituency with his chest-thumping ethno-nationalism.

But now it turns out that this might literally be true. Based on how this campaign has gone so far, there really might not be enough blue collar white men in America to elect Trump president, even if all of them come out to vote.

That’s the actual finding of a new analysis conducted by demographer William Frey of the Brookings Institution.

Frey's modeling produces a stunning result.

... assuming the spreads in the recent Post/ABC poll hold, if pretty much every single blue collar white male in America turns out to vote on Election Day, Trump would still fall well short of winning.

To make this worse for Trump, Frey added, it is far-fetched to begin with to assume that non-college white men will turn out at larger rates than college-educated whites overall will. The opposite is more likely to be the case, Frey said.

“And this doesn’t even play around with the possibility that college educated white women may turn out in larger numbers than usual in this election,” Frey added. That obviously could happen with a woman as the Democratic nominee.

If you are a numbers person, like me, then you will want to read the rest of Sargent's column.

No comments:

Post a Comment