Wednesday, August 17, 2016

Recent poll results continue to favor Clinton

Here are two items from the HuffPollster email.

VOTERS IN BOTH PARTIES EXPECT TRUMP TO LOSE - Samantha Neal: “Hillary Clinton is leading Donald Trump in recent polling by an average of 8 points ― and the difference is even more pronounced when you look at one particular metric, one that measures voters’ expectations of the race…. Clinton is outperforming Trump drastically on the expectations question. The University of Michigan’s monthly survey of consumers shows that the net share of households that expect Clinton to beat Trump in the general election rose to 39 percentage points in August. That’s up from 27 points in July and 14 points in June…. Other polls show a similarly sharp increase…. The most recent YouGov/Economist poll has Clinton up by 25 points on this question, showing a 13-point increase in just two months in people who believe Clinton will win the election….The expectations question is a powerful predictor of general election outcomes. And it’s one that Trump is critically losing. That’s no guarantee of a Clinton victory, but it’s also far from the only ominous signal for the business magnate.” [HuffPost]

TRUMP IS SLIPPING IN FLORIDA - Monmouth University: “Hillary Clinton holds a 9 point lead over Donald Trump in the crucial swing state of Florida….Among Sunshine State voters likely to participate in November’s presidential election, 48% currently support Clinton and 39% back Trump. Another 6% intend to vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 1% support Green Party candidate Jill Stein, with 5% who are undecided. Among self-identified Democrats, 92% support Clinton while 4% choose Trump and just 3% back a third party candidate. Trump has less support among his own party base, with 79% of Republicans who back their nominee, compared to 12% who support Clinton and 5% who back another candidate. Clinton leads Trump among independents by 47% to 30%, with 11% supporting Johnson and 2% backing Stein.” [Monmouth]

The Monmouth University Poll continues a trend of Clinton gaining over Trump. Before the conventions, polling in Florida showed a very close race with some polls showing Trump leading and some showing Clinton up. The trend has settled on Clinton leading by a few points ...

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