Monday, August 22, 2016

Republicans now likely to lose Senate

Here is the current call from HuffPollster email - and a caveat.

THINGS AREN’T LOOKING GREAT FOR REPUBLICANS IN THE SENATE - HuffPollster: “The biggest electoral question of the year is undoubtedly who becomes the next president. But just after that follows the issue of whether the Senate majority will flip again. Republicans took the chamber with a 54-46 seat majority in the 2014 midterm elections. Keeping that lead in 2016, however, will prove a more difficult task. According to The Huffington Post’s Senate model, which relies on the polls aggregated in HuffPost Pollster charts, there’s a 55 percent chance that the Senate will swing completely over ― and a 23 percent chance that it’s tied at 50 seats for each party. That means there’s a 78 percent chance that the Democratic Party could get 50 or more seats.” [HuffPost]

Some caveats - More from HuffPollster: “First, this model does not project out to Election Day. These figures are based on what polling and Cook Political Report ratings say about the races now.... There’s one big reason for focusing the model on what we know now: Events that would substantially shake up the races are generally unpredictable. Poll numbers will wax and wane, and this model accounts for that. What it can’t account for (and no model can) is a big change in circumstances that would alter the election such as occurred in 2008 when the economy crashed in mid-September. All the model really does is say what is most likely given the current trajectory.” [HuffPost]

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