Friday, October 14, 2016

Latest polling news

From the HuffPollster, first the good news: Clinton keeps edging upwards. Then the bad news: Dem Senate chances are not so good.

REPUBLICAN SENATE CANDIDATES ARE WEATHERING THE STORM SO FAR - Harry Enten: “In recent elections, more and more voters have been choosing candidates from the same party for president and Senate. That trend appeared to be holding true this year too, even with Donald Trump, unusual as he is, on the ballot. So as Hillary Clinton jumped out to a bigger lead in the polls starting after the first presidential debate in late September, we might have expected Democratic Senate candidates to poll better as well. That hasn’t happened… Indeed, the races for Senate control and the White House have split…. Clinton’s pre-Democratic-convention swoon was matched by Democrats doing worse in the polls. But Democrats rebounded as Clinton did after the convention. Then their odds all fell together in the second half of August and through September. Clinton’s chances began to rise again after the first debate, but unlike after the convention, Democrats’ chances of taking back the Senate haven’t followed Clinton’s presidential odds upward. To put this in mathematical terms, the correlation between the Democratic chances in the Senate and Clinton’s chances was a very high +0.87 in the 74 days before the first debate. In the 16 days since, it’s been -.23, indicating that they’re moving in opposite directions.” [538]

FORECAST UPDATE - Hillary Clinton has an 91.1 percent chance of winning the presidential election. Republicans have a 61 percent chance of keeping the Senate. [Presidential forecast, Senate forecast]

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