Tuesday, October 11, 2016

What the polls are showing

Here's the good news (from the HuffPollster email).

POLLS INDICATE TRUMP IS IN TROUBLE - Three new national polls show Donald Trump’s support declining, although by different amounts. An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows Trump down to 35 percent, with Clinton 11 points higher at 46 percent. That poll was conducted Saturday and Sunday, after the tape showing Trump bragging about sexually assaulting women was released Friday but before Sunday night’s debate. A PRRI/Atlantic poll conducted October 5-9, including time before and after the tape release, also shows Clinton with an 11-point lead and Trump with only 38 percent of the vote. A Politico/Morning Consult poll conducted Saturday showed Trump with 38 percent support, but that was only a 1 percent drop from their previous poll and only 4 points behind Clinton. A post-debate Morning Consult poll shows Trump dropping another point to 37 percent with Clinton holding steady at 42 percent. The margins between Trump and Clinton vary across these polls, but all show evidence of Trump declining into the 30s. That’s not a good sign 4 weeks out from the election. [NBC, PRRI, Politico, Morning Consult]

But here is the bad news.

Downballot Republicans don’t seem to be suffering - Janie Velencia and Grace Sparks: “Donald Trump’s boasts about sexually assaulting women could be causing him to lose some ground in the polls, but it doesn’t seem to be hurting down-ballot Republican candidates yet. Trump has declined by 2 percentage points among registered voters, according to YouGov/Economist polls conducted before and after the release of that notorious recording. At the same time, the GOP has seen a 2-point increase in generic House polling, which asks voters which party’s congressional candidate they’d vote for. Voters in his own party also seem to be targeting their ire at Trump specifically. Among registered GOP voters, Trump has dropped by 4 points, from 85 percent to 81 percent. But the generic down-ballot Republican candidate has seen no change, maintaining 88 percent support.” [HuffPost]

Both trends are reflected in the forecast.

CURRENT HUFFINGTON POST FORECAST - Hillary Clinton has an 88.3 percent chance of winning the presidential election. Republicans have a 65 percent chance of keeping the Senate. [Presidential forecast, Senate forecast]

For more on polls, see the Daily Kos post. In particular, note the NBC/WSJ poll showing Hillary with a 14 point lead. Last night Rachel Maddow pointed out that the last election in which the difference was in the double digits was 1984 when Reagan won 49 states! One can hope.

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