Wednesday, November 16, 2016

From the polls

Assuming you still trust them … here are some interesting items from the HuffPollster morning email.

When the dust settles and all the ballots are counted, Clinton likely gets a majority of 2 million of the popular vote. To the Trumpists: what mandate?

Fewer than 1 in 3 think Trump has a mandate to govern - Scott Clement and Dan Balz: “Americans emerged from President-elect Donald Trump’s surprise victory in last week’s election with passionate and polarized reactions, overall expressing tempered optimism about his presidency but unconvinced that he has a mandate to enact a sweeping new policy agenda, according to a Washington Post-Schar School national poll…. Nationally, just 3 in 10 Americans — 29 percent — say he has a mandate to carry out the agenda he presented during the campaign, while 59 percent say he should compromise with Democrats when they strongly disagree with the specifics of his policy proposals. That 29 percent figure is sharply lower than the 50 percent who said the same for President Obama after his first election in 2008 and the 41 percent for former president George W. Bush… Not withstanding views of Trump’s mandate, over 6 in 10 Americans expect to see major changes in Washington during his presidency. Almost as many say they are somewhat or very confident that the economy will improve on his watch, while 52 percent say they think living standards will increase. On other matters, Americans are more worried. Slender majorities say they are not confident he will show respect for people with whom he disagrees or make wise decisions about war and peace.” [WashPost]

DEMOCRATIC POLLSTER ARGUES CLINTON LOST BY ABANDONING ECONOMIC MESSAGE - Stan Greenberg and Nancy Zdunkewicz of Democracy Corps (D): “In the final weeks, the Clinton campaign conceded the economy and change to Trump, while seeking to make him personally unacceptable….After the debates, Democracy Corps tested a message from Democratic candidates attacking Trump for his extreme attitudes and behavior versus a Democratic candidate demanding big economic changes and attacking their opponent for supporting for trickle-down and protecting corporate special interests. We found that the tough economic message performed dramatically better in consolidating millennials, white unmarried women and white working class women. Instead of continuing the economic contrast that was so successful in the debates, the Clinton campaign chose to run ads disqualifying Trump on temperament, his capacity to handle the nuclear codes, and his vulgar treatment of women.” [DemCorps]

See? It was the economy, stupid.

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