Friday, November 4, 2016

Pols and Polls - the good, the bad, and the ugly

Summary for Nov. 4: The HuffPolster still gives Clinton a 98% chance of winning and the Dems a 63% chance of taking the Senate. The Upshot model is more conservative, 84% and 56%, respectively. But the race seems to keep tightening, for example, in New Hampshire, and the Post/ABC tracking poll now has her lead at just 3 percentage points. That’s the mix of good and bad. Here is the really ugly. Paul Waldman at the Washington Post/Plum Line (h/t AZBlueMeanie) documents the Republicans’ move toward “total war” to be waged against a President Clinton, no matter what the consequences to the country, Democracy be damned. I’ll cover this in a separate post.

FORECAST UPDATE (HuffPollster via email) - The presidential forecast still gives Hillary Clinton a 98 percent chance of winning the presidency. In the Senate, Democrats have a 63 percent chance of taking 51 or more seats. Republicans have a 10 percent chance of maintaining the majority. Presidential forecast, Senate forecast

NEW HAMPSHIRE POLLS SHOW AN INCREASINGLY TIGHT RACE - HuffPollster: “New Hampshire and its four electoral votes took center stage on Thursday, as several polls came out showing Donald Trump leading in the state, upsetting a previously clear Hillary Clinton lead….First, a MassINC/WBUR poll in the state showed Trump up by 1 point, 40 to 39….Another new poll from American Research Group put Trump up by 5 points in the state, and Suffolk University/Boston Globe showed the two candidates tied. But SurveyMonkey’s 50-state tracker daily update put Clinton up by 10 points ― which could be partially explained by its dates going back farther than the other polls. Something clearly changed in New Hampshire in the last few days. Clinton’s odds of winning New Hampshire will likely decrease a bit in the HuffPost forecast model. But that’s not likely to change Clinton’s overall win odds much since she’s holding steady in other key states. And Trump continues to struggle in states Republicans usually win handily.” [HuffPost]

Post/ABC tracking poll: Clinton 47%, Trump 44%.

NY TimesUpshot model gives Clinton an 84% chance of winning and the Dems a 56% chance of getting the Senate.

MSNBC/MaddowBlog: Steve Benen notes that As the finish line nears, latest polls point to a close presidential race.

Note, this isn’t a dramatic change from a month ago, when the New York Times/CBS News poll showed Clinton ahead by four, but it reinforces the larger pattern of a race that’s tightening as Election Day draws closer.

The results are also roughly consistent with the new ABC News/Washington Post daily tracking poll, which as of this morning shows Clinton up by two, 47% to 45%, which is her best performance in this poll in a week. Note that earlier this week, Trump actually inched into the lead in the Post/ABC data, though that’s since reversed.

Taken together, overall averages, with five days remaining before Election Day, put Clinton’s national lead somewhere between three and four points – a margin that should, if it holds, translate into a Democratic victory early next week.

State polls, meanwhile, point in more complex directions.

For example: “And just to capture the absurdity of the year, in Colorado, a University of Denver poll showed Clinton and Trump tied, while at the same time, a University of Colorado poll showed Clinton with a 10-point advantage.” Check out Benen’s post for results from other states.

Washington Post/The Fix: Philip Bump describes The good, the bad and the ugly in new state polls for Hillary Clinton. It’s consistent with Benen’s observations.

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