Saturday, November 5, 2016

Pols and Polls - the good, the bad, and the ugly

Summary for Nov. 5: The hemorrhaging might have stopped, but where Clinton bottomed out is not particularly good. Nate Silver’s 538 model has her chances of winning at 64.5% and Trump’s at 35.5% - basically a 2:1 advantage. The predicted electoral votes are 291 to 245 and the predicted popular vote percentages are 48.4 and 45.5. The NY Times Upshot model continues to be more optimistic granting Clinton an 85% chance of winning and collecting 322 electoral votes. The HuffPollster continues as the most optimistic giving Clinton a 97.9% chance of winning with 335 electoral votes. HuffPollster has the Senate flipping to the Dems with a 66% chance of at least a tie.

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