Wednesday, November 9, 2016

Pols and Polls - the good, the bad, and the ugly

Summary for Nov. 9: The good: very little. The bad: looks like Clinton won the popular vote but lost the electoral college. The Republicans kept control of the Senate and House. Which leads to the ugly: all three branches of what used to be our government are now controlled by Trumpists. The second ugly is the complete failure of the polls to predict this outcome. The Pollsters kept pointing to the 10% or so undecideds, and that, in my thinking, was the problem. A lot of Trump supporters were not represented in the polls but came out and voted for Trump. Another likely problem: a lot of young voters went third party. So I seek solace in state and local races which are a mixed bag.

APS and its parent company (Pinnacle West) have succeeded in their bid to have five Republicans on the Arizona Corporation Commission. The corruption will continue. To wit: the three Republican contenders for the open three seats ran as the “solar team.” They just out and out lied.

Contender for CD1 Paul Babeu and Maricopa Sheriff Joe Arpaio lost - about time.

Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos was defeated by Mark Napier. It’s too bad. Nanos really is a good guy who got smeared by internal Sheriff department politics.

Steve Christy won the seat on the Pima Board of Supervisors previously held by Ray Carroll. Steve gets to shoulder the burden of fellow Republican Ally Miller. Good luck with that, Steve. At least the Board still has a Democratic majority.

The AZ Senate might be split depending on the results of two races. AZ Capitol Times (subscription required) reports on two races of interest.

In a potential upset, Democrat Nikki Bagley holds onto a slim lead over incumbent Sen. Sylvia Allen, a Snowflake Republican in Senate majority leadership. Democrats have long tried, but up until now, failed to pick up the seat in LD6, which leans Republican.

In one of the most closely watched legislative races, Republican Rep. Kate Brophy McGee leads Democratic Rep. Eric Meyer by several hundred votes in the race for an open Senate seat in LD28.

If neither goes Dem then the count is 13/17. If one goes Dem, we get 14/16, and if both swing Dem, we get 15/15. You can keep watch at AZ Central.

State Sen. Andrea Dalessandro (LD2) kept her seat with a decisive win over challenger Shelly Kais.

My tally has the D/R ratio in the AZ House at 26/34. In LD2 it looks like Rosanna Gabaldon won handily and Daniel Hernandez bested Republican incumbent Chris Ackerley!

And the Continental School District override (Prop 450) passed.

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