Thursday, August 10, 2017

Good news for Dems, bad news for Jeff Flake, and America's advice to the world (stay away).

Here are tidbits from the FiveThirtyEight Significant Digits email.

Democrats are favored to win Congressional seats according to 538’s generic-ballot polling.

Senator Jeff Flake’s challenger, Kelli Ward, just got a major contribution from Robert Mercer, a Trump and Bannon supporter.

And then there is information on who wants to live where. You probably don’t want to move to Alabama given the high level of support for Trump.

Elections do have consequences. College students don’t want to live in the United States; they are opting to go to Canada instead. On this measure, Make America White Again is working out just fine. A representative Twump might read: “America to the world: stay away.”

46.5 percent
Quick check-in on generic-ballot polling while Congress takes its summer break: As of Wednesday, when Americans are asked whom they’d support in a congressional election, a generic Democrat is pulling 46.5 percent support compared to 37.1 percent going for a generic Republican. [FiveThirtyEight]

Prominent Trump donor Robert Mercer is donating $300,000 to a primary rival of Republican Sen. Jeff Flake in Arizona. [POLITICO]

85 percent
President Trump’s approval rating among likely Alabama Republican primary voters, which, whoa that’s high. This is helpful for interim Sen. Luther Strange, who scored a Trump endorsement in the Alabama primary happening next week to replace former Alabama senator and now Attorney General Jeff Sessions. [FiveThirtyEight]

$35 billion
Contribution that international students make to the U.S. economy. With 39 percent of American schools seeing a decline in international applications over the last year, Canada may potentially benefit from the windfall. The University of Toronto, the largest university in Canada, has seen applications from abroad increase 20 percent. [CNBC]

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