Tuesday, December 19, 2017

Two things Americans don't like: Republicans and the tax bill

Americans don’t like Republicans very much …

Here’s an entry from FiveThirtyEight’s Significant Digits email.

Catching the wave
Catching the wave

11 percentage points
A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found Republicans getting slammed on the generic ballot: 50 percent of respondents said they preferred Democrats lead Congress next year to 39 percent who preferred Republicans, the first double-digit lead in the poll for Democrats since 2008. The Wall Street Journal/NBC News figures are in line with FiveThirtyEight’s tracker, which looks at all polls and has Democrats leading Republicans 48.7 percent to 37.6 percent. [The Wall Street Journal, FiveThirtyEight]

The Wall Street Journal report is by subscription but the 538 data and analyses are public at their web site. Scriber ran the stats on the 10 polls reported by 538 for the last two weeks - and the WSJ/NBC poll was one of them. All 10 showed the difference averaging about 11 points favoring Democrats. The likelihood of that happening by sheer luck approaches zero.

Merry Christmas America
GOPlins' Christmas present for America

… and Americans like the Republican tax bill even less!

The Huffington Post reports that Republicans Are Hustling To Pass A Tax Bill That No One Really Likes.
And views don’t seem to be improving.

The tax bill Republicans are on the verge of passing remains generally unloved by America, new polling shows.

Nearly every publicly released poll of the bill taken this December shows its numbers in the red, with support from the bill ranging between 26 percent and 44 percent, and averaging out to just over 30 percent. That would make it, if enacted, among the least popular pieces of major legislation signed into law since the 1990s.

And despite President Donald Trump’s claim otherwise, the plan doesn’t appear to be growing on the public ― the most recent poll, released Monday by Monmouth University, was one of the worst recent surveys to date. In that survey, just 14 percent of Americans expected the tax plan to cut their own taxes, while half expected to have their taxes hiked. In a Quinnipiac poll released last week, 65 percent of voters thought the plan would mostly benefit the wealthy.

The considerable share of Americans who remain undecided or lukewarm gives the bill plenty of room to either gain or lose support. Views of the Affordable Care Act grew substantially worse ― and then substantially better ― in the years following its passage. The 2009 stimulus plan, which passed with majority support, was largely disliked a year later. Less promisingly for the tax plan, however, those people who aren’t sure about it aren’t too likely to be big fans of the current president.

Given the unfavorable ratings for Republicans running for Congress, the public antipathy towards the GOPlins’ tax cut bill will be one more nail in the GOP 2018 coffin. From the HuffPost/YouGov poll:

“As a teacher I can’t write off the meager tax deduction I get to buy my supplies but a millionaire can write off his private jet,” one Clinton voter wrote in response to the HuffPost/YouGov survey. Another respondent fumed: “The rich get a windfall. Working people get screwed.”

If the Republicans pass this thing, Scriber thinks that they’ll be even deeper under water in 2018 when voters get asked the question “What’s in your wallet?”

(Toons h/t AZBlueMeanie.)

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