Thursday, October 31, 2019

Update on race for U. S. Senate seat in Arizona

Things are moving fast on the impeachment front. We are getting close to the terminal actions by the House, one of which is the move toward public hearings, first in Intelligence and then in Judicial. John Cassidy at the New Yorker looks ahead to What Can We Expect from Televised Impeachment Hearings? It’s not a long read so have at it.

Taking a break from the national news about the impeachment, now pretty close to certain, I thought I’d dwell a little on what to expect here in AZ.

538 reports that Primary Challenges Might Keep These Republican Senators From Voting To Remove Trump.

… in total, there are 23 Republican-held seats up in 2020.

And in five of these races, Republicans face particularly tough reelection battles. Election forecasters have rated these races as the most competitive. …

One of them is the seat currently held by Martha McSally. 538 says that “the threat of a primary challenger is a real concern. In fact, both McSally and Tillis already have one.”

The AZ Republic (azcentral.com) reports.

Republican businessman Daniel McCarthy will run against incumbent Sen. Martha McSally for the GOP’s Senate nomination in 2020, dashing her hopes of averting a potentially nasty primary fight.

McCarthy, of Glendale, has been teasing a run for months and has questioned her conservative credentials and loyalty to President Donald Trump, who has already endorsed McSally.

McCarthy casts himself as conservative more aligned with the conservative base in today’s Republican Party than McSally. In interviews and Facebook posts, he has supported the repeal of the Affordable Care Act, the 2017 Republican tax law, and Trump’s signature border wall plan.

McSally has a history of supporting all of those policies, in one form or another.

In recent weeks, McCarthy has attacked McSally over her comments that she is “open” to to act on warnings of violent tendencies or activities by people who may have access to guns.

Larry Sabato, the political scientist who directs the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said McCarthy could complicate McSally’s efforts to woo more moderate voters.

“He can spend some bucks and he can make some damaging attacks, and all in all that’s bad news for her,” Sabato said. “He may drive her to the right while the Arizona electorate is clearly moderating” to a more purple status.

McSally, if she survives the primary challenge, will face former astronaut Mark Kelly.

Political analysts deem Arizona’s special election for the Senate seat a toss-up.

[But] “When it comes to the campaign, which will come later, we are unified,” McSally said. "I’m endorsed by President Trump. We are unified in the Republican Party.

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