Thursday, February 27, 2020

A FiveThirtyEight email Election Update

A FiveThirtyEight email Election Update (as of Wednesday, February 26, 2020)

Here is a summary and tables of predicted odds of winning and predicted number of delegates.

South Carolina has yet to vote, but there’s an even bigger prize lurking right around the corner. On March 3 — Super Tuesday — roughly one-third of Democrats nationwide will weigh in on the 2020 presidential race as 15 states and territories cast their ballots. We last checked in on who led polls of Super Tuesday states back in December; suffice it to say that things have changed. According to our primary forecast, Sen. Bernie Sanders is now favored to win a majority of Super Tuesday contests. But many of these races are still relatively wide open.

Sanders is forecasted to rack up wins on Super Tuesday
The percent chance each Democratic presidential candidate has of winning each contest on Super Tuesday, according to the FiveThirtyEight primary forecast as of 10:30 a.m. Eastern on Feb. 26, 2020

CONTESTBIDENBLOOMBERGBUTTIGIEGKLOBUCHARSANDERSWARREN
California7%1%0%0%89%3%
Texas351000523
North Carolina361910432
Virginia272220481
Massachusetts84405825
Minnesota20147473
Colorado7310836
Tennessee391710393
Alabama611710211
Oklahoma303020353
Arkansas252880382
Utah3410874
Maine81070678
Vermont0000990
American Samoa272042407

Super Tuesday could spread the delegate wealth
The average number of delegates each Democratic presidential candidate is forecasted to receive from each Super Tuesday contest, according to the FiveThirtyEight primary forecast as of 10:30 a.m. Eastern on Feb. 26, 2020

CONTESTBIDENBLOOMBERGBUTTIGIEGKLOBUCHARSANDERSWARREN
Calif.793921222747
Texas7043718718
N.C.342741396
Va.262671363
Mass.129913624
Minn.51328297
Colo.11840359
Tenn.201620215
Ala.221310132
Okla.101120113
Ark.7940101
Utah3410173
Maine3430113
Vt.0110131
A.S.210021
Total3052117038587132

If all the other candidates were to stand behind one of them, they would have a combined total of 756 delegates. If Warren hung in there, the rest of the candidates would still have 624 delegates, still enough to take the majority away from Sanders. But that’s probably not going to happen.

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