A FiveThirtyEight email Election Update (as of Wednesday, February 26, 2020)
Here is a summary and tables of predicted odds of winning and predicted number of delegates.
South Carolina has yet to vote, but there’s an even bigger prize lurking right around the corner. On March 3 — Super Tuesday — roughly one-third of Democrats nationwide will weigh in on the 2020 presidential race as 15 states and territories cast their ballots. We last checked in on who led polls of Super Tuesday states back in December; suffice it to say that things have changed. According to our primary forecast, Sen. Bernie Sanders is now favored to win a majority of Super Tuesday contests. But many of these races are still relatively wide open.
Sanders is forecasted to rack up wins on Super Tuesday
The percent chance each Democratic presidential candidate has of winning each contest on Super Tuesday, according to the FiveThirtyEight primary forecast as of 10:30 a.m. Eastern on Feb. 26, 2020
| CONTEST | BIDEN | BLOOMBERG | BUTTIGIEG | KLOBUCHAR | SANDERS | WARREN |
| California | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 89% | 3% |
| Texas | 35 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 52 | 3 |
| North Carolina | 36 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 43 | 2 |
| Virginia | 27 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 48 | 1 |
| Massachusetts | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 58 | 25 |
| Minnesota | 2 | 0 | 1 | 47 | 47 | 3 |
| Colorado | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 83 | 6 |
| Tennessee | 39 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 39 | 3 |
| Alabama | 61 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 1 |
| Oklahoma | 30 | 30 | 2 | 0 | 35 | 3 |
| Arkansas | 25 | 28 | 8 | 0 | 38 | 2 |
| Utah | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 87 | 4 |
| Maine | 8 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 67 | 8 |
| Vermont | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 99 | 0 |
| American Samoa | 27 | 20 | 4 | 2 | 40 | 7 |
Super Tuesday could spread the delegate wealth
The average number of delegates each Democratic presidential candidate is forecasted to receive from each Super Tuesday contest, according to the FiveThirtyEight primary forecast as of 10:30 a.m. Eastern on Feb. 26, 2020
| CONTEST | BIDEN | BLOOMBERG | BUTTIGIEG | KLOBUCHAR | SANDERS | WARREN |
| Calif. | 79 | 39 | 21 | 2 | 227 | 47 |
| Texas | 70 | 43 | 7 | 1 | 87 | 18 |
| N.C. | 34 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 39 | 6 |
| Va. | 26 | 26 | 7 | 1 | 36 | 3 |
| Mass. | 12 | 9 | 9 | 1 | 36 | 24 |
| Minn. | 5 | 1 | 3 | 28 | 29 | 7 |
| Colo. | 11 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 35 | 9 |
| Tenn. | 20 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 5 |
| Ala. | 22 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 2 |
| Okla. | 10 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 3 |
| Ark. | 7 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 1 |
| Utah | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 3 |
| Maine | 3 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11 | 3 |
| Vt. | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 1 |
| A.S. | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| Total | 305 | 211 | 70 | 38 | 587 | 132 |
If all the other candidates were to stand behind one of them, they would have a combined total of 756 delegates. If Warren hung in there, the rest of the candidates would still have 624 delegates, still enough to take the majority away from Sanders. But that’s probably not going to happen.
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