Saturday, March 7, 2020

538 forecast has Biden as 'clear favorite.'

Nate Silver reports on the 538 forecast: After Super Tuesday, Joe Biden Is A Clear Favorite To Win The Nomination. Sanders has a window, but it’s small.

Here’s a short version.

… The model gives Biden an 88 percent chance of winning a majority of pledged delegates, with most of the remaining outcomes being “no majority” rather than a Sanders majority. It also gives Biden a 94 percent chance of winning a plurality of pledged delegates, and Sanders a 6 percent chance.

The model also predicts chances of Sanders getting a majority (1 in 50) and Gabbard (<1 in 100). What is she doing and why? The model predicts chances of no one getting a majority as 1 in 10.

All this, as you might expect, is nuanced by specific states, votes to be cast and delegates to be earned, so check out the forecast for details.

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