Monday, March 9, 2020

Biden leads Sanders in Michigan Dem primary polls

Charlie Sykes describes the Trouble with Bernie in this morning’s email from The Bulwark.

The Coming Bernie Apocalypse

Bernie Sanders spent the weekend lashing out at his follow Democrats, the media, and Joe Biden. That’s understandable because he had a very bad week.

This one and the next may be even worse.

A new CNN poll shows Biden with a double-digit lead over Sanders (52–26)…. and some of the state by state polls are downright ugly for the democratic socialist. (The rolling endorsements of Biden by Kamala Harris, Corey Booker and others add to a sense of inevitability. They can read the polls too.)

ICYMI, I spoke with NBC’s Steve Kornacki on the Bulwark podcast about Sanders’s difficult delegate math, including the fact that he has three landslide losses on the horizon: Mississippi tomorrow, Florida next week, and Georgia on the 24th. Narrow wins in Michigan or Washington may stop the bleeding for a moment, but they won’t change his trajectory of doom. An outright loss in Michigan effectively ends his candidacy (although, knowing Bernie, we may get a zombie version all the way to Milwaukee).

And a loss is a very real possibility for Sanders.

Mr. Biden, despite having a thin operation in Michigan, appears likely to do well with black Democrats and college-educated white voters, two groups that handed him decisive margins in Virginia, North Carolina and several other states on Super Tuesday. And the exit polling and voting trends in some of those states indicate that Mr. Sanders has declined in strength with working-class white voters, who, uneasy with Mrs. Clinton in 2016, delivered him landslide wins across much of central and northern Michigan that year.

538’s average of polls has Biden way ahead of Sanders in Michigan.

Who’s ahead in Michigan? Updating average for each Democratic candidate in 2020 primary polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency.

Biden 46.0%
Sanders 29.3%
Gabbard 1.4%

No comments:

Post a Comment