Wednesday, March 4, 2020

Biden's 'miracle' - by the numbers

In yesterday morning’s email (TheBulwark.com), Jonathan V. Last wrote “Data for Progress has released their final state-by-state Super Tuesday poll and it is not great for Bernie. In fact, the numbers show such a big surge for Biden across the board that I’m not sure I believe it.”

After last night, we now believe it.

I ran some quick numbers. For each row below, left to right, I’ve listed the state, winner predicted by the Data for Progress poll, predicted performance, actual performance (as of early this morning from HuffPost), and the difference. So, for example, in Texas Biden was predicted to win b y 2 percentage points over Sanders and Biden won by 3.6 points for a net win of 1.6 points.

Minnesota is a special case where Sanders was the predicted winner (5 points) but Biden won by 8.7 points. I debited Sanders the 13.7 discrepancy and awarded it to Biden.

On average, Biden over-performed b y 11.0 points and Sanders under-performed by 3.6 points.

Texas: Biden +2 3.6 +1.6
North Carolina: Biden +9 18.9
Virginia: Biden +15 30.2+15.2
Massachusetts: Warren 28, Sanders 26, Biden 26 +7.1
Tennessee: Biden +7 16.8 +9.8
Alabama: Biden +25 46.6 +21.6
Arkansas: Biden +13 18.1 +5.1
Oklahoma: Biden +7 13.3 +6.3

California: Sanders +7 8.8 +1.8
Colorado: Sanders +14 13.0 –1.0
Maine: Sanders +9 –0.8 –9.8
Utah: Sanders +6 17.5 11.5
Vermont: Sanders +39 28.7 –10.3

Minnesota: Sanders Biden +5 8.7 –13.7

Caveats: More votes will continue to be tallied so the number cited here will change. Also, what is important is the number of delegates awarded which changes depending on the size of the state.

More bad news for Sanders - then and now

Across the board, Sanders has performed below his primary polls in 2016.

Here’s a tweet by Jason Johnson
@DrJasonJohnson
Sanders 2016 2020
MN 61% 30%
AK 29% 20.8%
OK 51.9% 25.1%
VA 35.2% 23.1%
TN 32.4% 24,5%
CO 59% 36%

Who will drop out next? And the news was not good for Bloomberg and Warren. Each are averaging about 12%–13%.

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