Monday, June 8, 2020

Joe Biden is ahead on almost every measure. Donald Trump is scared sh!tless.

The Bulwark’s Jonathon V. Last summarizes the polling results in The 2020 Cake Is (Almost) Baked Biden has the biggest, most durable lead of any presidential challenger ever. He’s more personally popular than Trump. The wrong-track number is at –38. And there are only 20 weekends left before Election Day.

In the dozens and dozens of polls taken over the last year, Donald Trump has led Joe Biden in exactly four of them.

Donald Trump is the most well-known and polarizing figure in the country. Everyone knows him and most people know what they think of him.

Joe Biden is the most famous living Democratic politician who is not a former president. He has been a national figure for 40 years. He is the last Democratic vice president. Most people know what they think of him, too.

More than any presidential election in our lifetimes, this cake started out pre-baked. And the natural level of the race is roughly Biden +6.

Here is more by the numbers.

  • General election: Biden +7.2
  • Trump’s job approval rating has been significantly underwater with his total approval number rarely getting to 43 percent, even. These figures, too, have been remarkably stable.
  • The country’s right track/wrong track numbers have been consistently brutal, with the spread never getting closer than –10 and currently sitting at –38.
  • On the generic congressional ballot, Democrats have held a substantial lead since early 2019—and that lead has been slowly widening for the last 17 weeks. It now stands at 9 points.
  • Trump’s personal favorable/unfavorable number—not his job approval—has been net negative throughout his administration, with an average spread of about –15. He’s currently a net –13.
  • Biden’s personal favorable/unfavorable number is close to neutral, having trended a little bit negative since Trump starting spending ads against him. He’s currently a net –1.4.
  • Biden’s polling lead over Trump is the biggest and most durable advantage any challenger has ever held over an incumbent president since the advent of modern polling.
  • As an incumbent president, Trump’s support number has been hovering around 42 percent.
  • As a challenger, Biden has been near the 50 percent mark.

So ask yourself this: If you remove the emotional influence of 2016 and just go by the numbers, what sort of odds would you have to get at this point in order to lure you into putting $100 on Trump?

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