Sunday, October 18, 2020

FiveThirtyEight - In simulations Biden is favored to win the election UPDATE - Oct. 18

Paraphrasing the morning email from 538:

We simulate the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. Results cited below are from a sample of 100 times.

I reversed the reporting so as to put the most recent result first.

Sunday, Oct 18: Biden wins 87 in 100, Trump wins 12 in 100, a point down. That spread has been gradually increasing - but now perhaps has stabilized. That probability seems locked in for now so I will only post again if there is some change.

Friday, Oct 16: No change - Biden wins 87 in 100, Trump wins 13 in 100. That spread has been gradually increasing - but now perhaps has stabilized.

Thursday, Oct 15: No change - Biden wins 87 in 100, Trump wins 13 in 100. That spread has been gradually increasing - but now perhaps has stabilized.

Wednesday, Oct 14: No change - Biden wins 87 in 100, Trump wins 13 in 100. That spread has been gradually increasing.

Tuesday, Oct 13: Biden wins 87 in 100, Trump wins 13 in 100. That spread has been gradually increasing.

Monday, Oct 12: Biden wins 86 in 100, Trump wins 13 in 100. That spread has been gradually increasing.

Friday, Oct 9: Biden wins 85 in 100, Trump wins 14 in 100. That spread has been gradually increasing.

Wednesday, Oct 7: Biden wins 83 in 100, Trump wins 17 in 100. That spread has been gradually increasing.

Tuesday, Oct 6: Biden wins 82 in 100, Trump wins 17 in 100. That spread has been gradually increasing.

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