Friday, October 23, 2020

FiveThirtyEight - In simulations Biden is favored to win the election UPDATE - Oct. 23

Paraphrasing the morning email from 538:

We simulate the election 40,000 times to see who wins most often. Results cited below are from a sample of 100 times. The most recent result is listed first.

Friday, Oct 23: Biden wins 88 in 100, Trump wins 12 in 100. The simulation results seem to have stabilized during the past week.

Thursday, Oct 22: Biden wins 87 in 100, Trump wins 12 in 100. The simulation results seem to have stabilized during the past week.

During the past 2 weeks Biden gained 5 points while Trump lost 5 points. You can track that history by clicking on the “more” tag.

Wednesday, Oct 21 Biden wins 88 in 100, Trump wins 12 in 100. The simulation results seem to have stabilized during the past week.

Monday, Oct 19: Biden wins 88 in 100, Trump wins 12 in 100. That spread has been gradually increasing.

Sunday, Oct 18: Biden wins 87 in 100, Trump wins 12 in 100, a point down. That spread has been gradually increasing - but now perhaps has stabilized. That probability seems locked in for now so I will only post again if there is some change.

Friday, Oct 16: No change - Biden wins 87 in 100, Trump wins 13 in 100. That spread has been gradually increasing - but now perhaps has stabilized.

Thursday, Oct 15: No change - Biden wins 87 in 100, Trump wins 13 in 100. That spread has been gradually increasing - but now perhaps has stabilized.

Wednesday, Oct 14: No change - Biden wins 87 in 100, Trump wins 13 in 100. That spread has been gradually increasing.

Tuesday, Oct 13: Biden wins 87 in 100, Trump wins 13 in 100. That spread has been gradually increasing.

Monday, Oct 12: Biden wins 86 in 100, Trump wins 13 in 100. That spread has been gradually increasing.

Friday, Oct 9: Biden wins 85 in 100, Trump wins 14 in 100. That spread has been gradually increasing.

Wednesday, Oct 7: Biden wins 83 in 100, Trump wins 17 in 100. That spread has been gradually increasing.

Tuesday, Oct 6: Biden wins 82 in 100, Trump wins 17 in 100. That spread has been gradually increasing.

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