Wednesday, December 9, 2020

Trump Losing 40 Consecutive Legal Cases Defies the Odds

In other words, Trump is a statistically significant loser.

Tortmaster at Daily Kos computes The Mathematical Likelihood of Losing 40 Consecutive Legal Cases - as Trump has done.

I believe that the impeached orange traitor has lost more consecutive civil lawsuits than any person in world history. I have actually notified The Guinness Book of World Records about this. The one case that Trump or his allies won was back on November 4. Since that meagre win, I believe that Trump has lost at least forty lawsuits in a row. Probably more, but we’ll go with forty as a rather conservative estimate.

If you look at this as a binary choice, a simple coin toss, the chances of heads coming up forty times in a row is vanishingly small. Ridiculously, stupefyingly, marvelously, vanishingly small. I decided to find out what those exact odds are and do the math. This is what I found out using a “coin toss probability calculator”:

Odds of 40 losses

Okay, 1 in 1.1 trillion is a figure I can understand. It is said that you have a 1:2 billion chance of picking the perfect March Madness basketball bracket with 64+ teams. Those odds come from none other than our own Poblano at his 538 website. There is a 1 in 302.6 million chance of winning a Power Ball lottery.

Those aren’t anywhere close to 1:1.1 trillion.

Of course, our coin example depends on tossing a fair coin. It must be evenly weighted. This post-election litigation, you’d think, would be unevenly weighted to one side: The side of the incumbent president.

For example, a few of these cases have been heard before judges who were personally appointed by Trump. Others were heard by Republican judges appointed by other Republican presidents. Additionally, state court cases were heard by a number of Republican state court judges. There was also said to be a Kraken involved, and subsequently, a Kraken on Steroids.

As an incumbent president—especially this incumbent president—he should be able to count on Federal agencies like the DOJ, NSA and FBI to look for evidence of fraud. Finally, he has an army of crazy people willing to sign unsworn “Afferdavids” to just about anything.

So, what could be the reason for so many consecutive losses?

EVIDENCE

To win a lawsuit as a plaintiff you need evidence. Even Mecha-Kraken won’t help you if you have no evidence.

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